PURR — Deep-Dive Research v1.0 | Liquid Wheel Research

Data as of the 2026-10-14 close. Reference price $9.47. HYPE $81.56 (other sources the same day: CoinGecko $80.65–80.70, purrmnav $81.02, Yahoo $80.66; a ±1% spread). Treasury figures from the company dashboard (data effective 2026-10-08, one-week lag).

Liquid Wheel Research · Deep-Dive Framework · v1.0

Hyperliquid Strategies (NASDAQ: PURR): a pile of HYPE tokens at 91 cents on the dollar, with the brake on share sales up for a vote

PURR is a stock that owns one crypto token, HYPE, plus some cash. At $9.47 you pay about 91 cents for each $1.00 of what it owns after taxes. That is not cheap by its own history, and on November 4 management asks to remove a limit on selling new stock below $12.02. Not a buy for the stock. A place to sell puts at low strikes, sized small.

THESIS: ON WATCH CONVICTION-SPEC · NOT TIER-1 MACRO: 🔴 RED SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL NO STOCK · PUTS AT $8 OR LOWER

first version · no prior score

Data as of the 2026-10-14 close · Price $9.47 · Net asset value $10.41 a share · 300.55M fully diluted shares · Stock market value $2.846B fully diluted ($2.635B on common only) · 38.52M HYPE + $263.53M cash · $0 debt · Fiscal year ends June 30

Price vs what it owns

PURR price ÷ after-tax net asset value per share, 2026-10-14

0.91xYou pay 91¢ for each $1.00 of HYPE + cash after tax · range since listing 0.76x–1.27x

Read in 30 secondsThe five things that matter, in plain English

1 · 0.91x is not a margin of safety0.91x mNAVThe stock's historical range is 0.76–1.27x, averaging about 1.0x. The $9.47 price already assumes HYPE is worth $72.29, about 11% below spot.

2 · The wrapper has added nothing yet+143% vs +141%Since the first close (2025-12-03), PURR is +143% and HYPE is +141%. Since 2026-03-31, PURR is +86% and HYPE +123%. Shares roughly doubled (+99%) while HYPE owned tripled (+208%).

3 · The share-selling machine just got bigger$1.0B → $2.5BThe equity line with Chardan was raised on 2026-09-01. About $0.91B is left EST. The Nov-4 vote would remove the 42.64M-share cap on selling below $12.02. The sponsor's 5% shares + 15% warrants fee on every raise is waived, but can be switched back on with two weeks' notice.

4 · The balance sheet is a fortress$0 debt$263.5M cash, about $18M a year of running costs. There is no forced seller, no margin call and no refinancing. The risk is the multiple (mNAV) and the share count, not solvency.

5 · Trade: no stock, puts onlyDec-18 $8 putCash-secured puts at $8 or lower (cost basis $7.375 = 0.71x NAV). Expiries straddle the Nov-4 vote and earnings. Size for $4. Trim assigned shares at 1.04–1.42x NAV (§15).

§1 · VERDICT · data as of 2026-10-14

In plain English

PURR is a stock that holds one crypto token, HYPE, plus some cash. At $9.47 a share you pay about 91 cents for each $1.00 of what it owns after taxes. That sounds cheap, but it has been cheaper (76 cents) and pricier ($1.27) in the past ten months. Since listing, the stock has done about what HYPE did, no better. On November 4, management asks shareholders to remove a limit on selling new stock below $12.02. It is not a buy for the stock. It can be a place to sell puts at low strikes, sized small.

Price vs what it owns (mNAV)

0.91x

$9.47 price ÷ $10.41 net asset value per share

29% of the way up its 0.763–1.265x range since listing · mean 1.011x

Net asset value per share

$10.41

HYPE $10.47 + cash $0.88 − tax bill $0.93

The price already assumes HYPE at $72.29, about 11% below spot

After-tax HYPE-equivalent per 1,000 shares

127.5

Was 134.4 on 2026-03-31: −5.1%. Raw tokens 124.9 → 128.4 (+2.8%)

The master metric: is each share getting richer in HYPE? Not yet.

Balance sheet

$0 debt

$263.5M cash vs about $18M a year of running costs

About 14.6 years of runway. No forced seller.

Probability-weighted value PM

$10.83

+14% from $9.47 · Red Team's ten downside cases average $5.71 (−40%)

All the upside comes from HYPE rising, not from PURR

Moat (competitive edge)

4 / 10

Wrapper 4/10 · Hyperliquid protocol 7/10

Tier-1 sizing needs 9/10. Spot HYPE ETFs offer the same exposure.

The verdict, line by line

Item	Verdict
Score	3.5 / 10 as an investment (first version; no prior score). The July triage scored 2/12 and called the rubric "not applicable." The positives: no debt, 14 years of cash for running costs, a documented "sell high, buy back low" record, and the largest pile of HYPE in a listed company. The negatives: no moat at the wrapper level, HYPE per share is not compounding, the machinery for selling new stock just got 2.5x bigger, sponsor economics, and a RED macro gate.
Thesis status	ON WATCH. The live thesis is the prior dossier's: "one of the more defensible digital-asset treasuries (DATs) to sell puts on, at deep discounts to its assets." No breaker has fired. Management has never disclosed a sale of stock below its asset value, and it has bought back stock when it traded at a discount. But three dated tests sit inside the next eight weeks: the Nov-4 vote, the Q1 FY27 10-Q (about Nov 12–16, UNVERIFIED), and the buyback authorization expiring about Dec 5–8.
Tier	Conviction-spec, NOT Tier-1. The framework allows Tier-1 sizing only with a moat of 9/10 or better. PURR's wrapper moat is 4/10 and the underlying Hyperliquid protocol's is 7/10 (§9).
Macro stamp (Stage 1)	🔴 RED. The veto fires for buying stock. The rule: "Never initiate unprofitable small caps late in a liquidity cycle." PURR has operating cash flow of −$19.1M a year and a market value of about $2.6–2.9B. Its value moves one-for-one with a risk asset. On 2026-10-14: the Federal Reserve (Fed) was hiking (3.75–4.00%), consumer prices (CPI) printed hot at 3.7%, low-grade credit spreads were widening (+182 basis points in 20 days for CCC bonds), and the Russell 2000 small-cap index broke its 200-day average. The macro lane leaves a 🟡 carve-out for selling puts only, at strikes of about 0.75x asset value or lower.
Sizing rule	Moat 4/10 means conviction-spec. The PM house rule caps that at 5% of the portfolio (half the framework's 10% Tier-1 cap). The framework also says "size DOWN outside circle of competence," so the PM cuts PURR to 2.5% maximum assigned notional. With macro RED: no stock purchases at all. Cash-secured puts only, at strikes of $8 or lower, starter size 1.25% of the portfolio until macro flips to YELLOW (§15). Size every put to survive a fall to $4.
Next check	2026-10-27/28 Fed meeting. 2026-11-04 annual meeting vote (Proposal 2). About 2026-11-12 to 11-16 Q1 FY27 results UNVERIFIED. 2026-11-14 Q3 13F institutional filings. About 2026-12-05 to 12-08 buyback authorization expiry.

Oct 27–28Fed meeting

Nov 4Annual meeting · Proposal 2 vote

~Nov 12–16Q1 FY27 results UNVERIFIED

Nov 14Q3 13F filings (who bought)

~Dec 5–8$30M buyback authorization expires

The Bet

One PURR share is a claim on 0.128 HYPE tokens, plus $0.88 of cash, minus a $0.93 tax bill the company would owe if it sold its HYPE at today's price. That nets to $10.41 of assets per share. The stock is $9.47, so the price-to-asset ratio (mNAV) is 0.91x.

HYPE is the token of Hyperliquid, the largest decentralized exchange for perpetual futures (perps: crypto futures contracts with no expiry date). Hyperliquid spends about 97–99% of its fees buying its own token back.

PURR's own edge is a capital-markets trick: sell new shares when the stock trades above its assets, buy HYPE with the money, and buy back shares when the stock trades below. Done right, each share owns a little more HYPE every quarter. So far it has not:

Raw HYPE per 1,000 shares went 124.9 → 128.4 since 2026-03-31 (+2.8%).
After counting cash and the growing tax bill, it fell from 134.4 to 127.5 HYPE-equivalent (−5.1%) CONFLICT (resolved in §6).

You are making two bets: that HYPE rises, and that management only ever sells stock above its asset value. The second bet loses its hard brake on Nov 4.

one share = 0.128 HYPE × $81.56 = $10.47, plus $0.88 of cash, minus $0.93 of tax = $10.41. Price ÷ that = $9.47 ÷ $10.41 = 0.91x. In words: you pay 91 cents for each dollar of after-tax assets.

Macro gate detail §1b · Stage 1

In plain English

The framework gives the economy a veto. Right now money is getting tighter: the Fed is still raising rates, inflation printed hot and the riskiest borrowers are paying more to borrow. PURR loses cash every year and moves with a risky asset, so the veto fires for buying the stock. Selling puts at deep discounts is still allowed.

Flip 🔴 → 🟡 · need 2 of 3 · currently 0 of 3

NOT MET

The Fed holds on Oct 28 AND the CCC credit spread (extra yield on the lowest-grade bonds) stops widening for 2–3 weeks.

Bitcoin holds $80K AND HYPE reclaims about $90, with Hyperliquid's 30-day protocol revenue at $70M or more (currently $69.0M, close).

NOT MET

PURR at or below 0.85x verified as-converted NAV, with the buyback re-authorized.

What would make it 🟢

A Fed pause.
The 10-year Treasury yield back below about 4.75%.
Net liquidity rising.
The CLARITY crypto market-structure bill revived (a cloture re-vote, possibly January 2027).

Conditions are the macro lane's, dated 2026-10-14. All three count as not met. The "close" label on condition 2 refers only to its revenue leg ($69.0M vs the $70M bar); HYPE at $81.56 is still below $90.

the framework gives macro a veto. Until at least two of the three conditions above are met, the plan does not buy stock, however cheap the mNAV looks.

§2 · WHAT CHANGED SINCE THE PRIOR VERSION · prior = 2026-07-12 dossier and triage · data as of 2026-10-14

What changed since the prior version

In plain English

The last look at PURR was a wheel-trading dossier on 2026-07-12, when the stock was $7.55. Since then the company sold about 78M new shares, raised its stock-sale limit from $1B to $2.5B, and bought about 9M more HYPE. The stock ran to $14.76 and fell back to $9.47. The prior report got the big calls right (cheap below asset value, management sells high and buys low). It got several numbers wrong, including the tax bill and the remaining stock-sale capacity.

There is no earlier PURR deep dive. "Prior" means the 2026-07-12 triage (2/12, rubric not applicable) and the 2026-07-12 PURR Wheel-Instrument Dossier.

The diff: July number vs October number what moved most

Price

$7.55 (07-10)

$9.47

Trough $5.97 close (07-29), all-time high $14.76 intraday (09-21), then −35.8%.

Price vs assets (mNAV)

~0.80–0.83x

0.91x

Peaked 1.13–1.25x late Aug to mid Sep on one consistent, tax-adjusted basis. RT-FIX

HYPE owned

29.28M (06-30)

38.52M

+9.2M tokens, all bought with money from new shares.

Cash

$149.9M (06-30)

$263.53M

~10-01, company dashboard. $132.6M on 08-19.

Shares (as-converted)

223.1M

~300–305M

+36.6% vs the dossier's count. Common +38.8% in one quarter.

Equity line (stock-sale facility)

$1.0B, ~$400M left

$2.5B, ~$0.91B left

Upsized 2026-09-01. Remaining figure is an estimate. EST

Tax bill (deferred tax)

≈$60.5M (03-31)

~$279.2M

$183.5M at 06-30, incl. $63.7M Subpart F; ~$279.2M at today's HYPE price. EST

Implied volatility, 30-day

107%

86.6%

Option premiums are thinner than in July (AlphaQuery, 10-13).

Short interest

15.12% of float

~8.7% of common

Shares short went up (20.0M → 24.15M); the % fell because the share count grew. RT-FIX

Put-strike rule (≤0.75x NAV)

$7.35–7.40

$7.80

0.75 × $10.41 NAV = $7.80. RT-FIX

The dated list most important first

2026-09-01: equity line upsized from $1.0B to $2.5B (8-K). This is the ELOC (equity line of credit): Chardan must buy new shares when the company asks.
- About $1.4B was left on 2026-09-08 (424B3). About $0.91B was left on 2026-10-01 EST (quant).
- A 42,641,847-share Nasdaq "Exchange Cap" applies to sales below the $12.02 "Minimum Price" after the first $1.0B.
- CONFLICT The technicals lane said "$1.85B left." That figure subtracted only the June-30 usage. RT-FIX
2026-11-04 (scheduled): Nasdaq Proposal (Proposal 2) to lift that cap (DEF 14A, 2026-10-02). PURR at $9.47 is below $12.02.
Share count jumped. Common shares went 196.55M (2026-06-15) → 200.55M (06-30) → 197.84M (08-23) → 237.92M (09-08) → 278.27M (09-30). That is +38.8% in one quarter. As-converted (counting the preferred stock as common) it is about 304.86M; the company dashboard shows 300.04M basic CONFLICT (§7).
HYPE treasury grew. 29.28M (06-30) → 29.4M (08-23) → 33.2M (09-08) → 38.52M (dashboard, ~10-01). Cash went $149.9M (06-30) → $132.6M (08-19) → $263.53M (~10-01).
Price and multiple round trip.
- Price: $7.55 (07-10) → trough $5.97 close (07-29) → all-time high $14.76 intraday (09-21) → $9.47 (10-14).
- mNAV: about 0.80–0.83x (late July) → 1.13–1.25x (late Aug to mid Sep, tax-adjusted basis) → 0.91x.
- RT-FIX The "~1.35x" peak The Block quoted on 08-27 uses a different basis. On one consistent basis the move was 1.13x → 0.91x.
2026-08-19: US-access catalyst. A public remark that the CFTC chair (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) is "working to bring Hyperliquid into the United States." PURR went $7.20 → $9.39 (+30%) on 62.0M shares. No application is pending (company footnote).
2026-08-27: FY26 printed.
- GAAP net income $305.5M; Q4 alone about +$470.9M.
- Staking and validator revenue $9.5M; running costs $14.0M.
- The CFO guided running costs to about $4M a quarter.
Issue and buyback policy made explicit (08-27 call):
- Issue only when net proceeds are above 1.1x mNAV (above 1.0x with the tax bill added back).
- Buy back when the stock is low.
- The $30M buyback program is 93% used ($27.8M; 5.8M shares at $4.80 average).
Tax bill bigger than modeled. The deferred tax liability (DTL) was $183.5M at 06-30, including $63.7M of federal "Subpart F" tax on a Cayman subsidiary. It is about $279.2M at today's HYPE price EST. A corporate minimum-tax risk (CAMT) is also flagged.
Sponsor paper moved to individuals. Advisor warrants were distributed 08-31 and advisor common shares 09-17 (Form 4s): Diamond, Schamis and Tuder.
Sponsor anti-dilution "kicker" disclosed. It is 5% shares + 15% warrants on every equity raise. It is waived, but revocable on two weeks' notice (DEF 14A).
Options and short-interest regime cooled.
- 30-day implied volatility (IV: the market's forecast of future swings) went 107% (July) → 86.6% (AlphaQuery, 10-13).
- Short interest went 20.0M → 24.15M shares. That is only about 8.7% of common shares, and days to cover is about 1 RT-FIX.
Sell-side coverage arrived.
- Maxim Buy $10 (04-24).
- Chardan Buy, target $9.75 → $17 (08-28). Chardan is also the ELOC buyer, a conflict.
- Cantor Overweight, $22.60 → $34.20 (09-10).
- Compass Point Buy $18 (09-14).
Hyperliquid protocol.
- Record open interest of about $13B (08-23).
- September protocol revenue $74.2M, the best since October 2025.
- On-chain volume share 38% vs open-interest share 62–63% (09-08).
- The Assistance Fund has removed 47.1M HYPE (4.7% of supply); gas burn about 1.4%.
- A 3.75M HYPE contributor tranche was sold OTC (off-exchange) on 10-06 to an undisclosed buyer UNVERIFIED.
Board: Sonnenfeld nominated to replace Dyrness (retiring 11-04).

Prior claims: KEPT or MISSED tracker grades

KEPT 9MISSED 7OTHER 5 (resolved, regime shift, mixed, partial, not tripped)

#	Prior claim (2026-07-12)	What happened	Grade
1	HYPE ≈ 28–30M	29.28M at 06-30 (10-K); 38.52M now	KEPT
2	Cash ≈ $150M	$149.9M at 06-30, incl. $12.0M USDC (a dollar-pegged token)	KEPT (then grew)
3	Tax bill ≈ $60.5M (03-31), scaling to ~$150M	$183.5M at 06-30, incl. $63.7M Subpart F the model ignored CONFLICT (tracker cites $63.8M; quant and 10-K Note 11 cite $63.7M; used $63.7M)	MISSED (understated ~$33M, ~$0.15 per share)
4	223.1M as-converted shares	Correct then; now ~300–305M	KEPT then; stale by +36.6%
5	ELOC $1.0B, ~$400M left	Upsized to $2.5B; ~$0.91B left EST	MISSED / no longer relevant
6	Buyback 3.1M shares at $3.42	3,067,097 shares for $10.5M, plus ~2.7M at ~$6.41 in July; 5.8M at $4.80 cumulative	KEPT
7	Issues above ~1.1x, buys back below ~0.9x	CEO confirmed on 08-27; July buybacks at ~0.83–0.95x	KEPT
8	Advisor 7.76M shares + 27.39M warrants, "up to 17.9%"	Same counts; now ~10.6% of fully diluted	KEPT (diluted down)
9	Advisory cash fee: unknown	No cash fee. Equity kicker (5% + 15%), waived, revocable	MISSED (latent ~20% tax on each raise)
10	CVR terms unknown	Pays only on monetizing legacy Sonnet assets within 3 years; fair value "nominal"	RESOLVED immaterial
11	Staking ~1.5–1.7%	Network rate 2.17–2.18%; PURR realized ~1.95–2.07%	KEPT on direction; yield too low
12	IV 107%, realized vol 101%	IV 86.6% (10-13)	REGIME SHIFT down
13	Short interest 15.12% of float	24.15M shares = ~8.7% of common	MIXED up in shares, down as %; squeeze thesis faded
14	Next earnings Aug 12	Reported Aug 27	MISSED
15	Hyperliquid ~80% of decentralized perps	38% of on-chain 24-hour volume / 62–63% of open interest (09-08)	MISSED (wrong metric or mis-sourced)
16	~$840M annualized Hyperliquid revenue	~$945M of ecosystem fees in the 12 months to 06-30; protocol revenue $689.4M over the trailing 12 months (DefiLlama)	KEPT / up
17	Unlocks ~9.9M HYPE a month	Claimed far below that; the 10-06 batch was 3.75M OTC UNVERIFIED	MISSED (treated vesting as selling)
18	Keep-selling-puts conditions (5)	mNAV band KEPT · buybacks below 0.9x KEPT · Hyperliquid flat-to-up KEPT · IV > 90% MISSED (86.6%) · strikes ≤ 0.75x NAV STILL VALID (re-keyed to $7.80)	4 OF 5 HOLD
19	STOP triggers (7)	None tripped. Nov-4 vote and Dec-2 lockup pending. The perps-share trigger is ambiguous (fires on volume, not on open interest)	NOT TRIPPED
20	Entry level "≤ $6.50"	The price filled on 10 sessions (07-17 to 08-06). The 0.75x condition never did (trough ~0.80–0.82x EST). PURR then ran +136% to the peak	KEPT (well-timed)
21	Earnings date, employee count (4)	Aug 27; 5 employees	MISSED

The chip tally above is our count of the tracker's grades PM. "Other" covers rows 10, 12, 13, 18 and 19.

Two-question check Stage 12

QUESTION 1

Has the growth story or execution changed?

Execution on accumulation: delivered. HYPE owned +34% since June.
Execution on per-share compounding: not delivered. After-tax HYPE-equivalent per share is −5% since 03-31.
The story changed in three ways: (a) firepower is 2.5x bigger, (b) management is asking for room to sell below $12.02, and (c) spot HYPE exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launched in May and erode the "US access" reason to own PURR.

QUESTION 2

Did the prior report overlook something now revealed?

Yes, five things:

the revocable sponsor kicker
Subpart F and CAMT tax exposure
the Exchange Cap / Minimum Price mechanics
the fact that "vested" HYPE is not the same as "sold"
the mismatch between volume share and open-interest share.

the July dossier was right about the trade (cheap below assets, sell puts, management sells high and buys low). It underestimated the plumbing: a bigger tax bill, a revocable sponsor fee and a much larger share-sale machine. Those are the things that decide whether each share gets richer.

§4 · COMPANY 101 · Stage 3 · data as of 2026-10-14

Company 101: what PURR actually is

In plain English

PURR is a Nasdaq-listed company whose only real asset is a big pile of HYPE tokens plus some cash. It earns a small yield (about 2% a year, paid in more HYPE) by lending its tokens to help run the Hyperliquid network. Its value rises and falls with HYPE, and with how much investors are willing to pay for the wrapper.

What it is

38.52MHYPE owned ($3,141.6M at $81.56)

$263.53Mcash (~10-01)

$0debt

5employees (10-K, 06-30)

~2%staking yield, paid in HYPE

Legal shape. Rorschach I LLC was formed 2025-06-13. It merged into the listed biotech shell Sonnet BioTherapeutics; the deal closed 2025-12-02, and Rorschach is the accounting acquirer. The legacy biotech was sold on 2026-03-31 to Guidant Biotherapeutics for a 40% stake.
What it owns (company dashboard, ~10-01): 38.52M HYPE ($3,141.6M at $81.56) and $263.53M cash. Debt: $0.
How it "earns":
- Staking and validator revenue: $9.46M in FY26, mostly Q4.
- Interest on cash: $2.71M.
- Unrealized HYPE gains: $709.9M (non-cash).
Staff: 5 employees (10-K, 06-30).
Outsourced:
- Custody: Anchorage keeps substantially all HYPE.
- Validator (the computer that helps confirm transactions): run by Unit / Nexus Research Labs.
- Anchorage's own validator: Figment.
- "Technical advisory": Rorschach Advisors, where CEO Schamis is a manager.
- Auditor: CBIZ.
Staking split (09-08):
- 25.1M HYPE (75.7%) on PURR's own validator.
- 8.1M (24.3%) on Anchorage/Figment.
- Third parties delegated 2.3M HYPE to PURR's validator.
- Unstaking takes 7 days.

Where PURR's HYPE is staked (09-08)

Own validator 25.1M · 75.7%Anchorage/Figment 8.1M

PURR's validator (Unit / Nexus Research Labs)Anchorage / Figment · 24.3%

The 8-year-old explanation

PURR is a piggy bank that only holds one kind of coin, called HYPE. HYPE belongs to Hyperliquid, a giant online trading arcade. The arcade uses almost all the ticket money it collects to buy back its own coins.

PURR doesn't run any arcade games. It does three things:

When people will pay more for a PURR share than the coins inside it are worth, PURR sells new shares and buys more HYPE.
When PURR shares are cheap, it buys its own shares back.
It lends its coins to help run the arcade, and earns about 2 extra coins a year for every 100 it holds.

The catch: the people who set up the piggy bank get a cut, and every time PURR sells new shares, the piggy bank gets bigger but your slice may not.

Dated milestone timeline

Date	Event	Source
2024-11-29	HYPE genesis airdrop: 31% of the 1B maximum supply	10-K
2025-06-13	Rorschach I LLC formed	Proxy
2025-07-11	Merger agreement signed (Sonnet + Rorschach); amended 2025-09-22	Form 4 footnote
2025-10-22	$1.0B equity line signed with Chardan	Proxy
2025-11	Core-contributor HYPE vesting begins: 238M HYPE (23.8% of supply), running through 2027–28	10-K
2025-12-02	Deal closes: 12,517,592 HYPE + $299.9M cash; 123.35M common + 166,173 Series A preferred (converts to 26,587,647 common)	10-K
2025-12-03	PURR starts trading (first close $3.90; HYPE $33.85)	Yahoo; Red Team
~2025-12-08	$30M, 12-month buyback authorized	Press release
2025-12-29	PURR all-time low $3.01 (HYPE 1-year low $20.97–21.09 around 01-20)	Yahoo; CoinGecko
2026-02-03	17.6M HYPE; ~3.0M shares bought back at $3.42 ($10.5M)	Press release 02-11
2026-02-11	Q2 FY26 results; live mNAV dashboard launched	10-Q
2026-03	Listed options begin	Company IR site
2026-03-31	Legacy Sonnet assets sold to Guidant for a 40% stake	10-K
2026-04-24	Maxim initiates Buy, target $10	MarketBeat
2026-04-29	20.0M HYPE; $103M cash; $38.4M raised on the equity line at ~$6.31	Press release 05-07
2026-05-07	Q3 FY26 call	Transcript
2026-05-12 / 05-15	21Shares THYP and Bitwise BHYP spot HYPE ETFs list (competing wrappers)	CryptoBriefing
2026-05-13	Validator "Hyperliquid Strategies x Unit" launches (promised 05-11)	10-K
2026-05-29	PURR closes $9.99. Possibly the 150% early-lockup trigger, if the advisor acquisition price was ~$6.25 UNVERIFIED	Red Team
2026-06-22 / 06-23	CEO salary raised to $600K; COO placement agreement via SBR Ltd (Hong Kong)	8-K 06-26
2026-06-29	Added to the Russell 2000/3000	Press release
2026-06-30	FY-end: 29.28M HYPE; $149.9M cash; 200,550,458 common	10-K
2026-07	~2.7M shares bought back for $17.3M (~$6.41), then ~10.7M issued for $117.1M (~$10.94)	10-K Note 12
2026-07-29	PURR closing low since listing month: $5.97 (intraday $5.80 on 07-28)	Yahoo
~2026-08-14/18	Duquesne (Druckenmiller) 13F shows a new 2.94M-share stake	13F coverage
2026-08-19	US-access remark; PURR +30% on 62.0M shares	Press release 08-27
2026-08-27	FY26 results; PURR +15–18%	8-K; The Block
2026-08-28	Chardan target $9.75 → $17	MarketBeat
2026-08-31	Rorschach Capital distributes advisor warrants to members	Form 4s
2026-09-01	Equity line upsized to $2.5B; Exchange Cap set	8-K
2026-09-08	33.2M HYPE; 237,919,288 common; ~$1.1B of the line used	424B3
2026-09-09	T-REX 2X Long PURR ETF (KATT) launches	Sentiment lane
2026-09-10	Cantor target $22.60 → $34.20	MarketBeat
2026-09-14	Amendments 2/3: PURR receives 98.5% of the day's average price (from 97.5%), or 97.0% after hours (from 95.0%), after the first 160M shares. Compass Point initiates Buy, $18	8-K; MarketBeat
2026-09-15	S-1 registers 160M shares for Chardan to resell; effective 09-23	S-1; 424B3
2026-09-17	Rorschach Capital distributes advisor common shares to members	Form 4s
2026-09-21	PURR all-time high $14.76 intraday (HYPE high $97.18–97.19 on 09-22)	Yahoo; CoinGecko
2026-09-28	RSU grants: CEO 248,344; CFO 82,781; COO 82,781 (vest 2027–29)	Form 4s
2026-09-30	Record date: 278,271,288 common	DEF 14A
2026-10-06	3.75M HYPE contributor tranche sold OTC to an undisclosed institution	CryptoTimes UNVERIFIED
2026-10-08	Dashboard: 38.52M HYPE; 300.04M basic shares; $263.53M cash	hypestrat.xyz
2026-10-14	PURR $9.47 (−7.4%), 7 straight down sessions, −35.8% from the high	Yahoo
2026-11-04	Annual meeting: Nasdaq Proposal; Sonnenfeld for Dyrness	DEF 14A
~2026-11-12 to 11-16	Q1 FY27 results UNVERIFIED (StockAnalysis 11-12, Yahoo 11-16)	—
2026-12-02	First anniversary of close: first RSU tranches vest; the company may terminate the equity line from now on; nominal advisor lockup end (may have lapsed already, §13)	10-K
~2026-12-05 to 12-08	$30M buyback authorization expires; ~$2.2M left	10-K; press release CONFLICT (on exact date)

TAM and growth runway

In plain English

PURR's "market" is really Hyperliquid's market. If Hyperliquid takes more of the world's crypto-futures trading, it earns more fees, buys back more HYPE, and HYPE (and PURR) should be worth more. TAM (total addressable market) means the most revenue the whole market could produce.

Base inputs (qual lane, dated):

Hyperliquid 30-day perps volume: about $240B (mid-September, Crypto Times).
Global perps share: 9.4% (company, 06-30).
That implies a global perps market of about $2.55T a month, or ~$30T a year.
Protocol revenue: $689.4M over the trailing 12 months on about $2.9T of volume. That is a take rate (fee kept per dollar traded) of ~2.4 basis points (bps; 1 bp = 0.01%).

$689.4M ÷ $2,900,000M = 0.024% = 2.4 bps. In words: Hyperliquid keeps about 2.4 cents of every $100 traded.

Protocol revenue path EST (qual lane model). Assumes global perps grow 10% a year and the take rate drifts down. Excludes upside from real-world-asset (RWA) markets, outcome markets and USDC reserve yield.

Horizon	Global perps volume	Hyperliquid share	Take rate	Protocol revenue
2026	~$30T	9.4%	~2.4 bps	$0.69B
3-yr (2029)	$39.9T	12%	2.2 bps	~$1.05B
5-yr (2031)	$48.3T	15%	2.1 bps	~$1.52B
10-yr (2036)	$77.8T	20%	2.0 bps	~$3.1B
Bear, 10-yr	$77.8T	5%	1.5 bps	~$0.58B

Protocol revenue path EST ($B a year)

2026

$0.69B

2029 (3-yr)

~$1.05B

2031 (5-yr)

~$1.52B

2036 (10-yr)

~$3.1B

Bear, 10-yr

~$0.58B

PURR's own revenue is not protocol revenue. It is HYPE owned × ~2% staking × HYPE price:

At 38.52M HYPE and $81.56: ~$63M a year EST (quant). The qual lane's $68M uses the 2.18% network rate.
At $200 HYPE: ~$150M a year.
All of it is non-cash (paid in HYPE).
Staking yield falls as more HYPE is staked network-wide. 440.4M was staked on 09-08.

the TAM story is real but indirect. PURR shareholders capture Hyperliquid's growth only through the HYPE price, less about 21% tax on gains above $47.12, less sponsor warrants. More HYPE per share is the only extra lever, and it requires selling stock above 1.015x NAV.

§5 · FLYWHEEL · Stage 6 · data as of 2026-10-14

The flywheel, node by node

In plain English

A flywheel is a loop where each step feeds the next. PURR's loop works only when its stock trades above the value of its HYPE. Right now it doesn't, so the loop has stopped.

Hyperliquid volume and fees grow

Monthly revenue: $42.4M (April trough) → $74.2M (September).

97–99% of fees buy back HYPE

Through the Assistance Fund. That is ~$830M a year of buying, about 4.6% of HYPE's $17.9B circulating market value.

HYPE price and narrative rise

HYPE went +84% over 180 days and is at a record versus Bitcoin UNVERIFIED (KuCoin blog undated).

PURR trades at a premium to its assets (mNAV > 1.1x) STALLED

Drivers: index inclusion, listed options, demand for US access. Today: 0.91x.

PURR sells stock through the equity line above 1.1x STALLED

The accretion breakeven is 1.015x, because Chardan pays 98.5% of the day's average price.

More HYPE is bought and staked, HYPE per share rises

And PURR's buying absorbs tradable supply.

Higher NAV per share and liquidity attract more premium capital

Back to node 4.

Reverse gear

When mNAV is below ~0.9x, PURR buys back stock from cash. Per the 05-07 call, it may even sell HYPE to fund buybacks if cash is at its $25M floor and the discount is serious.

The two gears vs today (mNAV)

Forward gear (sell stock) needs mNAV above 1.1x. Reverse gear (buy back) needs mNAV below about 0.9x, with only ~$2.2M of authorization left. Today, 0.91x, sits in the dead zone between them.

Is it spinning? Intermittently. Stalled today.

It spun hard from 08-27 to ~10-01: about $0.94B of stock sold EST, HYPE 29.4M → 38.5M.
At 0.91x it is outside both gears.
The forward gear needs mNAV above 1.1x.
The reverse gear has only ~$2.2M of authorization left, expiring ~12-05 to 12-08.
Even when it spun, HYPE per share barely moved: +2.8% raw tokens since 03-31, −5.1% after tax CONFLICT (§6).

Friction

Node 4 is the whole loop: without a premium, nothing downstream turns.
Spot HYPE ETFs (May 2026) compete for the same "premium capital" in node 7.
The sponsor's revocable 5% + 15% kicker would tax every turn of node 5.

The "Friction" card restates points made in §6, §9 and §13 PM.

the flywheel turns HYPE price strength into a bigger company. It has not yet turned it into a richer share. A flywheel that grows the total but not the per-share figure is a fee machine for the sponsor and the equity-line buyer.

§6 · WHAT MATTERS · data as of 2026-10-14

Make-or-break questions, most important first

In plain English

These are the eight questions that decide whether PURR is worth more or less a year from now. Each gives the current answer and what would change it.

1 · MOST IMPORTANT

Will management sell stock below its asset value after Nov 4?

Now: The stated policy is to issue only when net proceeds exceed 1.1x mNAV. That is policy, not contract. The 10-K's "established target ratio" is not given as a number. Proposal 2 would remove the 42.64M-share cap on sales below $12.02. With no outside owner above 5%, passage is likely EST. Today's mNAV is 0.91x.

What changes it: (a) the vote fails, or (b) a written, enforceable floor of 1.0x tax-adjusted NAV, or (c) the Q1 FY27 10-Q or the next 424B3 shows any tranche sold below 1.015x.

Is HYPE per share actually compounding?

Now: No. CONFLICT (resolved) Quant's raw-token count is 124.9 → 128.4 HYPE per 1,000 shares since 03-31 (+2.8%). Red Team's after-tax HYPE-equivalent (tokens + cash − tax bill, all in HYPE units) is 134.4 → 127.5 (−5.1%). Both are arithmetically right.

The PM uses the after-tax measure as the master metric. It is what an owner would get if the company were liquidated. The tax bill grows as HYPE rises, a real cost that direct HYPE owners don't bear in the same way.

What changes it: two quarters of after-tax HYPE-equivalent per share rising faster than staking alone (~0.5% a quarter).

Can the premium come back with spot HYPE ETFs live?

Now: mNAV ranged 0.763x–1.265x since listing, mean 1.011x, median 1.007x (quant weekly estimate). Premium phases coincided with HYPE rallies. BHYP had $105M of assets 11 days after launch. October fund assets are unknown.

What changes it: HYPE above $97.19 (its 52-week high), or a long stretch of HYPE ETF outflows while PURR's mNAV stays above 1.1x.

Do Hyperliquid's fees hold up?

Now: Trailing 30 days $69.0M (~$830M annualized). September $74.2M. The April-2026 trough was $42.4M (−56% from the $97.2M October-2025 peak).

What changes it: monthly revenue back below ~$45M (bearish, scenario 8), or above $90M (bull trigger).

Does the macro liquidity squeeze deepen?

Now: RED. Fed hiking, 10-year yield 5.19%, CCC spreads +182 bps in 20 days, US dollar index (DXY) +2.2 points in 20 days.

What changes it: the flip conditions in §1b.

Does the sponsor take more?

Now: The 5% + 15% kicker is waived but revocable on two weeks' notice, and CEO Schamis manages the Advisor. 27.39M sponsor warrants sit at $9.375 / $12.50 / $18.75.

What changes it: an irrevocable waiver (positive), or a revocation notice (breaker).

Will the buyback be renewed, and how big?

Now: ~$2.2M left, expiring ~12-05 to 12-08.

What changes it: a new authorization of $100M or more, actually used at 0.85x or below.

US regulation

Now: The CLARITY Act failed cloture 49–50 on 09-15. Polymarket odds of 2026 enactment fell from 29.5% to 6.5%. Talk of a US pathway for Hyperliquid is double-edged: if US users can trade HYPE directly, PURR's access premium shrinks.

What changes it: a CFTC or Justice Department action (scenario 5), a security ruling on HYPE, or a CLARITY re-vote (January 2027).

questions 1, 2 and 7 are all tested in the next eight weeks (the Nov-4 vote, the Q1 FY27 10-Q and the buyback expiry). That is why the plan waits and sells puts rather than buying now.

§3 · THE 16-GATE CHECKLIST · prior = triage 2026-07-12, then v1.0 · data as of 2026-10-14

The 16-gate checklist, every gate graded

In plain English

These are the 16 pass/fail tests every stock in the framework faces. PURR passes 4, is borderline on 5 and fails 7. Most fails come from the fact that PURR is a pile of tokens, not a business: no cash flow, no founder, no moat, no earnings record. The passes are about its clean balance sheet. Expected fails for a token wrapper are still fails.

4 PASS · simple story, current ratio, cash above debt, efficiency (caveated)

5 WATCH · flywheel, insiders, institutions, mNAV band, paper profit

7 FAIL · growth, free cash flow, moat, founder, skin in the game, earnings record, dilution

Tally: 4 PASS / 5 WATCH / 7 FAIL. Same 16 gates used for IREN v3 and ORCL v1.0, so grades compare across names. The 2026-07-12 triage scored 2/12 and was not itemized by factor, so most prior grades are "—"; where the triage text states a view, it is shown.

FAIL

1Revenue growth 30–50%+

Prior: — ("meaningless here")

The right growth measure for a treasury is HYPE per share: +2.8% raw tokens, −5.1% after tax since 03-31. Staking revenue $0.50M → $2.63M → $6.33M (Q2–Q4 FY26) grows only with tokens × price.

there is no business growing underneath; the share just tracks HYPE.

FAIL

2Free cash flow (cash left after spending on equipment) positive

Prior: FAIL implied

−$19.1M in FY26; −$8.3M / −$7.0M / −$3.8M by quarter. Staking rewards are paid in HYPE, not cash. Fails by construction.

WATCH

3Visible flywheel

Prior: —

Drawn in §5. It spun hard 08-27 to 10-01 (HYPE 29.4M → 38.5M). Stalled now at 0.91x: outside both the "issue" gear (>1.1x) and the "buy back" gear (<0.9x, with only $2.2M of authorization left).

FAIL

4Moat 9/10 or better (Tier-1 gate)

Prior: — · v1.0: FAIL (4/10 wrapper; 7/10 protocol)

Edges: scale (largest listed HYPE pile, ~19x Hyperion DeFi), a $2.5B equity line, index membership. No switching costs or network effects. Spot HYPE ETFs offer the same exposure without dilution.

FAIL

5Founder-led

Prior: "no founder-product story"

Built by a sponsor (Atlas Merchant Capital / Rorschach, with a Paradigm affiliate). The real founder-operator, Hyperliquid Labs, has no tie to PURR.

FAIL

6Skin in the game 5x or more (insider stock value ÷ yearly pay)

Prior: —

CEO Schamis: $7.58M ÷ $3.7M forward pay = 2.0x (6.4x on FY26 pay). Directors and officers as a group: ~2.1x. Only Chair Diamond clears 50x (~51x on director pay).

WATCH

7Insider net activity (12 months)

Prior: — · v1.0: WATCH (negative lean)

$0 open-market buys and $0 sells. All 47 Form 3/4 filings are distributions (code J) or grants (code A). No insider bought at the $3.01–3.42 lows.

WATCH

8Institutional adds and trims

Prior: "institutions 35.6% (index)"

MarketBeat: 49 buyers vs 3 sellers, $175.9M in vs $2.1M out. Druckenmiller's Duquesne opened 2.94M shares. But ownership is CONFLICT 9.45% (MarketBeat) vs 45.3% (Yahoo). Q3 13Fs land 11-14.

FAIL

9Earnings beats, 8 straight

Prior: — · v1.0: FAIL (unusable)

Only 3 public prints. No real consensus. Yahoo's history is wrong: it shows Q4 at −$0.86 when Q4 net income was +$470.9M, and Q2 at −$6.56 vs −$7.43 in the 10-Q.

PASS

10Explainable to an 8-year-old

Prior: —

A piggy bank with only one kind of coin in it (§4, on the Company tab).

WATCH

11Price-to-sales band

Prior: "rubric N/A" · v1.0: WATCH (mNAV band substitute)

Price-to-sales (P/S) is 278.6x ($2,635M ÷ $9.46M), meaningless here. On the substitute mNAV band, 0.91x = "aware." Not the 0.65–0.75x "left for dead" hunting ground.

FAIL

12No shareholder dilution

Prior: "dilution-by-design"

As-converted shares +99% (Dec-2025 to Oct-2026); +38.8% in Q1 FY27 alone. The cap may be lifted 11-04; the sponsor kicker is revocable.

PASS

13Current ratio 2:1 or better (short-term assets ÷ short-term bills)

Prior: —

41.6x ($152.4M ÷ $3.66M at 06-30).

WATCH

14Net margin positive

Prior: — · v1.0: WATCH (paper profit)

GAAP net income +$305.5M in FY26, but $709.9M of it is unrealized HYPE gains. Excluding mark-to-market items, the company loses about $10–19M a year.

PASS

15Cash greater than debt

Prior: "zero debt"

$263.5M cash vs $0 debt. Caveat: the $279.2M tax bill EST behaves like debt if HYPE is ever sold.

PASS

16Operational efficiency rising

Prior: — · v1.0: PASS (caveated)

5 employees run a ~$3.1B balance sheet. Running costs fell from $7.25M (Q3) to $3.22M (Q4); the guide is ~$4M a quarter. Staking covers costs about 3–4x on run-rate, but in HYPE, not cash.

current ratio = short-term assets ÷ short-term bills = $152.4M ÷ $3.66M = 41.6x. PURR could pay every bill due within a year about 42 times over.

The checklist as a table same grades, one line each

#	Gate	Prior	v1.0	Evidence (one line)
1	Revenue growth 30–50%+	— ("meaningless here")	FAIL	The right growth measure for a treasury is HYPE per share: +2.8% raw tokens, −5.1% after tax since 03-31. Staking revenue $0.50M → $2.63M → $6.33M (Q2–Q4 FY26) grows only with tokens × price. What this means: there is no business growing underneath; the share just tracks HYPE.
2	Free cash flow (cash left after spending on equipment) positive	FAIL implied	FAIL	−$19.1M in FY26; −$8.3M / −$7.0M / −$3.8M by quarter. Staking rewards are paid in HYPE, not cash. Fails by construction.
3	Visible flywheel	—	WATCH	Drawn in §5. It spun hard 08-27 to 10-01 (HYPE 29.4M → 38.5M). Stalled now at 0.91x: outside both the "issue" gear (>1.1x) and the "buy back" gear (<0.9x, with only $2.2M of authorization left).
4	Moat 9/10 or better (Tier-1 gate)	—	FAIL (4/10 wrapper; 7/10 protocol)	Edges: scale (largest listed HYPE pile, ~19x Hyperion DeFi), a $2.5B equity line, index membership. No switching costs or network effects. Spot HYPE ETFs offer the same exposure without dilution.
5	Founder-led	"no founder-product story"	FAIL	Built by a sponsor (Atlas Merchant Capital / Rorschach, with a Paradigm affiliate). The real founder-operator, Hyperliquid Labs, has no tie to PURR.
6	Skin in the game 5x or more (insider stock value ÷ yearly pay)	—	FAIL	CEO Schamis: $7.58M ÷ $3.7M forward pay = 2.0x (6.4x on FY26 pay). Directors and officers as a group: ~2.1x. Only Chair Diamond clears 50x (~51x on director pay).
7	Insider net activity (12 months)	—	WATCH (negative lean)	$0 open-market buys and $0 sells. All 47 Form 3/4 filings are distributions (code J) or grants (code A). No insider bought at the $3.01–3.42 lows.
8	Institutional adds and trims	"institutions 35.6% (index)"	WATCH	MarketBeat: 49 buyers vs 3 sellers, $175.9M in vs $2.1M out. Druckenmiller's Duquesne opened 2.94M shares. But ownership is CONFLICT 9.45% (MarketBeat) vs 45.3% (Yahoo). Q3 13Fs land 11-14.
9	Earnings beats, 8 straight	—	FAIL (unusable)	Only 3 public prints. No real consensus. Yahoo's history is wrong: it shows Q4 at −$0.86 when Q4 net income was +$470.9M, and Q2 at −$6.56 vs −$7.43 in the 10-Q.
10	Explainable to an 8-year-old	—	PASS	A piggy bank with only one kind of coin in it (§4).
11	Price-to-sales band	"rubric N/A"	WATCH (mNAV band substitute)	Price-to-sales (P/S) is 278.6x ($2,635M ÷ $9.46M), meaningless here. On the substitute mNAV band, 0.91x = "aware." Not the 0.65–0.75x "left for dead" hunting ground.
12	No shareholder dilution	"dilution-by-design"	FAIL	As-converted shares +99% (Dec-2025 to Oct-2026); +38.8% in Q1 FY27 alone. The cap may be lifted 11-04; the sponsor kicker is revocable.
13	Current ratio 2:1 or better (short-term assets ÷ short-term bills)	—	PASS	41.6x ($152.4M ÷ $3.66M at 06-30).
14	Net margin positive	—	WATCH (paper profit)	GAAP net income +$305.5M in FY26, but $709.9M of it is unrealized HYPE gains. Excluding mark-to-market items, the company loses about $10–19M a year.
15	Cash greater than debt	"zero debt"	PASS	$263.5M cash vs $0 debt. Caveat: the $279.2M tax bill EST behaves like debt if HYPE is ever sold.
16	Operational efficiency rising	—	PASS (caveated)	5 employees run a ~$3.1B balance sheet. Running costs fell from $7.25M (Q3) to $3.22M (Q4); the guide is ~$4M a quarter. Staking covers costs about 3–4x on run-rate, but in HYPE, not cash.

Where the fails cluster

Gates 2, 4, 5 and 9 fail by design: a token pile has no cash flow, no founder, no wrapper moat and no earnings record to beat.
Gates 6 and 12 are choices: insiders own little stock, and the company sells a lot of it.
The passes (13, 15, 16) are all about a clean, debt-free balance sheet run by five people.

The "Where the fails cluster" grouping is a PM summary of the gates above PM.

on the framework's own terms, PURR cannot become a long-term hold. Gates 2, 4, 5 and 9 fail by design. It can only be traded as an instrument when the price is well below what it owns.

§7 · FINANCIALS · Stages 2 + 4 · fiscal year ends June 30 · data as of 2026-10-14

Financials: the honest pictures

In plain English

PURR's accounts are dominated by swings in the HYPE price. Profits on paper can be hundreds of millions in a quarter, while actual cash going out is a few million. The numbers that matter are: how much HYPE it owns per share, how much cash it has, and how many shares exist. Cash flow is negative by design, because its income arrives as HYPE, not dollars.

The one chart that tells the story: shares doubled, HYPE tripled, HYPE per share went flat

Bars: shares as-converted and HYPE owned (millions, left axis). Green line: HYPE per 1,000 shares (the master metric, labeled on the points). Amber line: price ÷ assets (mNAV, right axis) with a dashed 1.0x line. HYPE bars are drawn on their own scale (both series start from zero), so compare their growth by height and hover or tap for exact values. Historical data only; the hatched bar on 2026-04-29 is an estimate. mNAV has no reading on 2026-09-08.

the share count doubled and the HYPE pile tripled, but HYPE per 1,000 shares has been flat at about 125–131 since the cash was deployed in the spring, and the price-to-assets ratio swings around 1.0x. Growth in the total is not growth per share.

The wrapper added nothing: PURR vs HYPE returns

Price change over three windows ending 2026-10-14. If PURR were compounding HYPE per share, its bar would be longer than HYPE's.

Paper profits vs real cash ($M)

GAAP net income swings with the HYPE price (line, right axis). Operating cash flow barely moves. Q2–Q4 FY26.

Where management sold and bought stock, vs the breakeven line

Each bar is the range of price ÷ assets (mNAV) when that batch of shares was sold (blue) or bought back (green). Selling above the dashed 1.015x line raises HYPE per share; buying back below 1.0x does too. Ranges partly estimated EST.

every batch so far was on the right side of the line: sold above 1.015x, bought back below 1.0x. But the premiums were thin (mostly 1.07–1.25x), so HYPE per share barely moved. The open question is what happens below 1.0x after the Nov-4 vote.

7a. Capital-structure six-pack Shkreli's 15 minutes

Item	Value	Source / note
Price	$9.47 (2026-10-14 close, low of day; prior close $10.23)	Yahoo
52-week range	$3.01 (2025-12-29) to $14.76 (2026-09-21); −35.8% from the high	Yahoo
Shares, common	278,271,288 (2026-09-30)	DEF 14A record date
Shares, basic incl. preferred	300.04M (dashboard, ~10-01) vs 304.86M (278.27M + 26.59M preferred)	CONFLICT The ~4.8M gap may be ~5.8M treasury shares counted gross in the proxy. Unreconciled; ±2% on NAV
Shares, fully diluted (company formula)	300.55M	hypestrat.xyz
Market value (market cap)	$2.635B on common only (the Yahoo figure) · $2.846B fully diluted · $2.887B on 304.86M	Quant RT-FIX (Sentiment's $2.635B is common only)
Cash	$263.53M (~10-01) · $132.6M (08-19) · $149.9M incl. $12.0M USDC (06-30)	Dashboard; press release; 10-K. CONFLICT TokenPost's $292.6M (10-03) is third-party with no stated source; not used
Debt	$0. No converts, notes or loans	10-K
Quasi-debt: deferred tax liability (DTL: tax owed if the HYPE were sold)	$183.5M at 06-30; ~$279.2M at HYPE $81.56 = 21.05% × ($3,141.6M − $1,815.09M tax basis). Includes $63.7M federal Subpart F on Cayman earnings	10-K; quant EST
Enterprise value (EV: market value minus cash plus debt)	~$2.58B ($2,846M − $263.5M); $2.86B counting the tax bill	Quant
EV ÷ HYPE value	0.82x ($2,582M ÷ $3,141.6M)	Quant
Short interest	24.15M shares (2026-09-30 settlement), down from 28.65M (08-31 peak). ~8.7% of common	MarketBeat / FINRA. RT-FIX Quant's 12.4% (of a 195.4M float) and Sentiment's 9.5% use stale floats
Days to cover (short shares ÷ average daily volume)	0.96. No squeeze fuel	Yahoo / MarketBeat
Ownership	Institutions CONFLICT 45.3% (Yahoo) vs 9.45% (MarketBeat). Insiders 3.65% (Yahoo). Directors and officers 8.62M (3.0%), of which ~6.21M are warrants, so ~2.41M actual shares (~$23M)	Yahoo; MarketBeat; DEF 14A

market value = 300.55M fully diluted shares × $9.47 = $2,846M. Enterprise value = $2,846M − $263.5M cash + $0 debt = about $2,582M.

the stock is debt-free and cash-rich. The biggest "liability" is a tax bill that only becomes cash if HYPE is sold, and it shrinks automatically if HYPE falls. At HYPE about $47 or below it is zero.

7b. Quarterly table $ millions unless marked

Only three real public-company quarters exist. Q1 FY26 is the pre-merger shell, derived by subtraction. The 8-quarter requirement is met with the post-quarter treasury snapshots in 7f. The sector-right leading indicator is HYPE per share, not revenue.

$M	Q1 FY26 (Sep-25) shell	Q2 FY26 (Dec-25)	Q3 FY26 (Mar-26)	Q4 FY26 (Jun-26)	FY26	Q1 FY27 (Sep-26)
Staking + validator revenue (the only revenue segment)	0	0.50	2.63	6.33	9.46	Pending ~11-12/16 UNVERIFIED
Unrealized HYPE gain (loss)	0	(93.2)	198.4	604.6	709.9	Pending
Loss on HYPE contribution	(13.4) [unverifiable mechanism, RT]	(155.8)	0	0	(169.2)	—
IPR&D write-off (Sonnet)	0	(35.6)	0	0	(35.6)	—
SG&A + R&D (running costs)	(0.02)	(3.47)	(7.25)	(3.22)	(13.95)	Guide ~(4.0)
Other (equity-line derivative, mostly non-cash)	–	–	+0.32	(14.6)	(14.3)	Pending
Interest income	0	0.88	1.04	0.79	2.71	Pending
Tax (deferred)	0	(17.8)	(42.7)	(123.0)	(183.5)	Pending
GAAP net income	(13.4)	(304.5)	152.5	470.9	305.5	Pending
Earnings per share, diluted (GAAP)	n/a	(7.43) per 10-Q CONFLICT (Yahoo −6.56)	1.01	n/a [Yahoo's −0.86 is wrong]	3.21	Pending
Earnings per share, consensus	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	No reliable consensus
Gross margin	n/a	100%	100%	100%	100%	—
Operating margin	Meaningless: mark-to-market dominates
Adjusted EBITDA (cash-profit proxy)	Not reported
Operating cash flow	~0	(8.3)	(7.0)	(3.8)	(19.1)	Pending
Capital spending (capex)	0	0	0	0	0	—
Free cash flow	~0	(8.3)	(7.0)	(3.8)	(19.1)	Pending
HYPE bought (the real "capex")	0	9.0	160.4	308.8 + ~303 via USDC	478.2 + 307.3 USDC	~$0.94B of stock sold since 06-30 EST
Buybacks	0	9.4	1.1	0	10.5	July: $17.3M
Weighted diluted shares	–	41.0M	124.04M	n/a	79.80M	Pending
Period-end shares (common + preferred)	–	150.68M	150.81M	227.14M		~300.04–304.86M
HYPE owned, period end	–	12.86M	18.83M	29.28M		38.52M (~10-01)
HYPE price, period end	–	$25.48	$36.60	$65.04		~$81.56 (10-14)

Sources: 10-Qs filed 2026-02-11 and 2026-05-08; 10-K filed 2026-08-27. Q1 and Q4 are derived by subtraction. Numbers in parentheses are negative. On a phone, swipe the table sideways.

ignore the GAAP net income line. Q2's −$304.5M and Q4's +$470.9M are mostly HYPE moving between $25 and $65. The only steady line is the ~$4–8M a quarter of cash going out the door.

7c. From GAAP net income to operating cash flow to free cash flow FY26, 10-K cash-flow statement

Item	$M
Net income	305.5
Unrealized gain on HYPE	−709.9
Loss on contribution	+169.2
IPR&D write-off	+35.6
Non-cash other expense (equity-line derivative)	+12.4
Equity-method loss (Guidant)	+0.4
Non-cash staking revenue (received in HYPE)	−9.5
Stock-based compensation (SBC: pay in shares)	+0.9
Board fee shares	+0.1
Deferred tax	+183.5
Working capital	−7.4
Operating cash flow	−19.1
Capital spending	0
Free cash flow	−19.1

Stock pay.

$0.89M = 9.4% of revenue ($0.89M ÷ $9.46M) and 0.3% of net income.
The real "pay" was the sponsor grant at close: advisor shares worth $48.9M plus warrants worth $134.7M (Black-Scholes model, 123% volatility). Total $183.6M = 21% of the $880.4M raised.
Separately, token contributors were credited at a fixed $46.372 per HYPE when HYPE was about $33.85. That produced the $169.2M "loss on contribution." The Red Team counts it as value moving from cash investors to token contributors: about $353M, or 40% of money raised, left ordinary owners at the start EST (Red Team).

the small stock-pay line hides the fact that the people who built the vehicle were paid up front, in a size that would be enormous for an operating company.

7d. Operating-leverage argument, and why it fails

In plain English

Operating leverage means revenue growing faster than costs, so profits rise faster than sales. For PURR it holds on paper but never becomes cash.

The framework's tests, operating cash flow ÷ capex and free cash flow ÷ operating margin, are not meaningful here. There is no capex, and margins are set by the HYPE mark.
Substitute test: staking revenue ÷ cash running costs.
- FY26: $9.46M ÷ $13.95M = 0.7x.
- Run-rate: ~$63M ÷ ~$16–18M = about 3.5–4x EST.
Why it fails: the staking revenue arrives in HYPE. Operating cash flow stays at about −$18M a year unless PURR sells staking rewards, which it says it won't.

PURR "covers its costs" only in a HYPE-denominated sense. In dollars it slowly spends its cash: $263.5M ÷ $18M ≈ 14.6 years of runway.

7e. Organic vs acquired growth; anniversary

100% of HYPE growth since close was bought with outside equity. Total HYPE added since close: +26.0M. Starting point was 12.52M contributed; about 25M was purchased, plus staking accrual.
Organic growth (staking only) is ~2% a year in HYPE units.
The Sonnet acquisition contributed $10.3M cash and a $35.6M IPR&D write-off. The biotech is disposed of.
Anniversary: the deal-close anniversary is 2026-12-02. It brings the first RSU vesting, the company's right to terminate the equity line, and the nominal advisor lockup end. There is no revenue anniversary effect to analyze.

7f. Leading indicators dated snapshots = the 8-period table

Date	HYPE owned	Shares (as-converted)	HYPE per 1,000 shares	Cash ($M)	mNAV (tax-adjusted, quant est.)	Source
2025-12-02 close	12.518M	153.62M	81.5	$299.9	0.86 (12-03)	10-K
2025-12-31	12.86M	150.68M	85.3		0.91	10-Q
2026-03-31	18.83M	150.81M	124.9	$113.1	1.04	10-Q
2026-04-29	20.0M	~156.9M EST	127.5	$103	1.01	Press release
2026-06-30	29.28M	227.14M	128.9	$149.9	0.96	10-K
2026-08-21/23	29.4M	224.43M	131.0	$132.6	1.13	10-K cover; press release
2026-09-08	33.2M	264.51M	125.5 (proceeds not yet deployed)	n/a	n/a	424B3
2026-10-01	38.52M	300.04M	128.4	$263.53	1.09	Dashboard
2026-10-14	38.52M	300.04M	128.4	$263.53	0.91	Dashboard + price

After-tax HYPE-equivalent NAV per 1,000 shares (Red Team, from the quant lane's NAV snapshots): 134.4 (03-31) → 127.5 (now), −5.1%.

HYPE per 1,000 shares = 38.52M ÷ 300.04M × 1,000 = 128.4 HYPE. Put simply: every 1,000 PURR shares you own are backed by about 128 HYPE tokens.

Other indicators:

Staking yield (annualized): Q3 ≈ 2.07%, Q4 ≈ 1.95%. Network 2.18% on 440.4M staked (09-08).
Cash per share: $0.88 (~10-01) vs $0.66 (06-30). This is dry powder for buybacks.
Equity-line capacity left: ~$0.91B EST. Total sold through 10-01 is about $1.59B ($646.6M by 06-30 plus ~$940M since).
Hyperliquid protocol (dated):
- ~$945M of ecosystem fees in the 12 months to 06-30.
- Trailing-12-month protocol revenue $689.4M (DefiLlama, 10-14).
- 9.4% of global perps volume including centralized exchanges (06-30).
- 63% of decentralized-exchange (DEX) perps open interest (08-23); 62% of on-chain open interest and 38% of on-chain 24-hour volume (09-08).
- Record ~$13B open interest (08-23).
- HIP-3 builder markets were 48% of 30-day volume on 08-23 vs ~30% on 09-08.

7g. Balance-sheet gates

Gate	Result
Current ratio ≥ 2:1	PASS. 41.6x ($152.4M ÷ $3.66M, 06-30)
Net debt ÷ cash profit (EBITDA)	n/a; net cash
Liquidity runway vs committed spending	PASS. $263.5M vs ~$16–18M a year = ~14.6 years. No committed capex
Covenant / convert risk	None

Contingent items:

Tax bill (DTL): ~$279.2M at spot EST. It becomes cash only if HYPE is sold, and shrinks as HYPE falls. At HYPE about $47 or below it is zero.
Corporate alternative minimum tax (CAMT): 15% on book income above a $1B three-year average. FY26 pre-tax income was $489M, and unrealized gains may count. Relief under IRS Notice 2025-49 is not final UNVERIFIED. At HYPE $150, book gains of about $2.6B could create a cash tax with no cash coming in.
Subpart F: a $63.7M federal tax liability on $303.4M of undistributed Cayman earnings.
Custody and staking concentration: substantially all HYPE sits with one custodian (Anchorage), and 75.7% is staked to one validator operator. The operator's liability cap is "customary," not a number.

7h. Debt and convertible schedule

In plain English

There are no bonds, notes, convertibles or loans. The "capital stack" that matters is everything that can turn into more shares, because more shares split the same pile of HYPE.

Instrument	Size	Terms	Per-share effect
Common stock	278,271,288 (09-30)	—	Base
Series A preferred	166,173 shares → 26,587,647 common	$1,000 ÷ $6.25 conversion; no dividend; not redeemable; 4.99% / 9.99% ownership blockers	Included in as-converted counts
Advisor warrants	27,394,800	9.13M each at $9.375 / $12.50 / $18.75; 5-year term from 2025-12-02	The $9.375 tranche is ~$0.10 in the money. Dilutive only on exercise
Bridge + PIPE warrants	~1.24M	$6.25	Ties to the 10-K total of 28,658,614 warrants, weighted average strike $14.24
RSUs (restricted stock units: shares granted that vest over time)	1,169,558	Vest 2027–29	Small
Plan reserve	5,148,024	—	Small
Equity line (Chardan)	$2.5B facility; ~$0.91B left EST	97.5% of the day's average price (98.5% after 160M shares); 95–97% after hours	Accretive only above ~1.015x mNAV
Sponsor kicker	5% shares + 15% warrants on each raise	Waived; revocable on 2 weeks' notice	~20% "tax" on future raises if revoked
Tax bill	~$279.2M EST	Payable only on sale	−$0.93 per share in NAV

Treasury-stock-method dilution at $9.47 (warrants assumed exercised, proceeds used to buy back stock): +0.51M shares, negligible.

7i. Dilution history and overhang

Date	Common shares	As-converted	Change driver	Source
2025-12-31	124.09M	150.68M	Close	10-Q
2026-03-31	124.22M	150.81M	Buybacks offset issuance	10-Q
2026-06-30	200.55M (203.62M issued, 3.07M treasury)	227.14M	~76.06M shares sold on the equity line for $646.6M	10-K
2026-08-23	197.84M	224.43M	~2.7M bought back in July (and ~10.7M issued per 10-K Note 12; timing unreconciled)	10-K cover
~2026-09-01	~213.3M (implied)	—	Exchange Cap of 42,641,847 = 19.99%	8-K
2026-09-08	237.92M	264.51M	Equity line	424B3
2026-09-30	278.27M	304.86M	Equity line (+40.35M in 22 days)	DEF 14A

Dec-2025 to Oct-2026: as-converted shares +99% (150.7M → 300.0M). HYPE +208% (12.52M → 38.52M).
Average price received through 06-30: $8.50, not $8.70. RT-FIX $646.6M ÷ 76,063,600 = $8.50. The $8.70 looks like the market average before Chardan's discount; the CEO said "~$8.50."
Overhang:
- Up to 160M shares registered for Chardan resale.
- ~$0.91B of line left.
- 27.39M sponsor warrants.
- 7.76M advisor shares (distributed to members 09-17; lockup status unclear, §13).
- The revocable kicker.

dilution is the business model. It helps owners only when each new share is sold for more than the HYPE it represents.

7j. Chart spec "one chart that tells the story"

Historical data only. Every estimate is labeled. This is the data behind the first chart on this tab.

X-axis: Dec-2-25, Dec-31-25, Mar-31-26, Apr-29-26, Jun-30-26, Aug-21-26, Sep-8-26, Oct-1-26, Oct-14-26.

Series	Values (in date order)
A. Shares, as-converted (M), bars	153.6, 150.7, 150.8, 156.9e, 227.1, 224.4, 264.5, 300.0, 300.0 ("e" = estimate)
B. HYPE owned (M), bars, second color	12.52, 12.86, 18.83, 20.0, 29.28, 29.4, 33.2, 38.52, 38.52
C. HYPE per 1,000 shares, line (master metric)	81.5, 85.3, 124.9, 127.5, 128.9, 131.0, 125.5, 128.4, 128.4
D. mNAV, line on right axis, with a 1.0x reference line	0.86 (Dec-3), 0.91, 1.04, 1.01, 0.96, 1.13, n/a, 1.09, 0.91

The message: the share count doubled, HYPE owned tripled, HYPE per share has been flat at about 125–131 since the cash was deployed, and mNAV oscillates around 1.0x. Secondary charts (all on this page):

Weekly mNAV, labeled "estimated, interpolated" (Valuation tab).
An issuance accretion picture: the four tranches in §12 plus the buybacks (−3.07M shares at $3.42; −2.7M at ~$6.41) (above).
PURR vs HYPE since 2025-12-03 (PURR +143%, HYPE +141%) (above, as returns by window).
The price chart: 46 weekly candles, with moving averages and Bollinger bands (Trade Plan tab).

§8 · MANAGEMENT · Stage 5 · data as of 2026-10-14

Management: dealmakers, not founders

In plain English

PURR is run by Wall Street dealmakers, not technologists or founders. They have bought and sold stock sensibly so far. But they own little stock themselves, they are paid mostly in warrants that reward volatility, and the people who set up the company keep the right to take a cut of future fundraising.

Leadership framework triage: CTO first, then CPO, then CEO

Red flag: there is no chief technology officer (CTO) and no chief product officer (CPO)

Technical work is outsourced:

Validator: Unit / Nexus Research Labs.
Custody: Anchorage, with Figment as Anchorage's validator.
Advice: Rorschach Advisors, where the CEO is a manager.

That is partly forgivable for a company whose only job is to own tokens. Still, nobody inside can independently judge protocol risk.

Executive	Background	FY26 pay	Forward
David Schamis, CEO (52)	Atlas Merchant Capital CIO; J.C. Flowers 2000–14; Salomon; Yale BA	$1,186,126 ($86,668 salary, $900,000 bonus, $199,458 stock)	$600K salary, 100% target bonus, $2–3M yearly equity = ~$3.2–4.2M
Brett Beldner, CFO (55)	DCG controller 2021–22; Hard Yaka; Macquarie; Barclays; Lehman; PwC; CPA. The only exec with crypto-native finance experience	$3,447,553 ($2.82M of RSU grant value)	—
Jeroen Nieuwkoop, COO (55)	Group Chief Strategy Officer, Triller Group / AGBA, 2020–25	$4,263,122, paid via SBR Ltd (Hong Kong)	Diligence flag: Triller/AGBA governance record not verified
Rob Diamond	Director of Corporate Affairs; moderates earnings calls	n/a	Related party: the Chair's son

Skin in the game formula shown

Formula: insider stock value ÷ annual pay. Priced at $9.47; share counts from the DEF 14A (09-30). Framework bar on a log scale: below 5x weak, 50x+ strong, 1,000x ideal.

Insider	Common shares (excl. warrants)	Value	Annual pay	Ratio	Verdict
Schamis, vested	511,533 (2,124,288 beneficial − 1,612,755 warrants)	$4.84M	$1.19M (FY26)	4.1x	Weak
Schamis, incl. unvested RSUs	800,666	$7.58M	$1.19M	6.4x	Weak
Schamis vs forward package	800,666	$7.58M	~$3.7M midpoint	~2.0x	Weak
Diamond (Chair)	1,469,550 (5,231,130 − 3,761,580 warrants)	$13.9M	$274,458 director pay	~51x	Strong
Beldner, vested	31,840	$0.30M	$3.45M	0.09x	Fail
Beldner, incl. unvested	536,244	$5.1M	$3.45M	1.5x	Fail
Nieuwkoop	Same as Beldner	—	$4.26M	~1.2x	Fail
Directors + officers	~2.41M	~$22.8M	~$10.8M (execs $8.9M + directors $1.85M)	~2.1x	Weak

Schamis's 800,666 shares × $9.47 = $7.58M. $7.58M ÷ $3.7M forward pay = 2.0x. In words: the CEO's stock is worth about two years of his pay. The framework wants at least five.

Skin in the game, log scale (5x weak · 50x strong · 1,000x ideal)

Diamond (Chair)

~51x

Schamis (FY26 pay)

6.4x

Directors + officers

~2.1x

Schamis (forward)

~2.0x

Beldner (incl. unvested)

1.5x

Bar length is log-scaled from 1x (empty) to 1,000x (full).

Warrants:

Schamis has 537,585 at each strike ($9.375 / $12.50 / $18.75). Intrinsic value at $9.47 is ~$51K.
An option-style value of ~$9M EST (not sourced) would lift his ratio only to ~4–6x forward pay.
His indirect stake through Rorschach Advisors LLC is not disclosed.

Verdict: FAIL against the log-scale bar. Only the Chair clears 50x. Sponsor alignment runs through warrants, which pay off on upside and cost nothing on downside. That rewards volatility and premium issuance more than per-share discipline.

Net 12-month insider activity Form 4, 2025-12-04 to 2026-09-30

Open-market buys $0 · sells $0 (0% of their shares). None at the $3.01–3.42 lows; only the company bought back.
All 47 filings are non-cash:
- 08-31 (code J): in-kind distribution of advisor warrants. Schamis 537,585 per tranche; Diamond 1,253,860 per tranche; Tuder 272,578 per tranche.
- 09-17 (code J): distribution of advisor common. Diamond +832,750 (to 1,510,339); Schamis +416,013 (to 552,322); Tuder +231,692.
- 09-28 (code A): RSU grants. Schamis 248,344; Beldner 82,781; Nieuwkoop 82,781.

moving sponsor paper into individual hands makes it individually sellable. Watch Form 4s after the next price spike.

Scores (0–10)

Area	Qual lane	PM	Evidence
Management (capital allocation, ethics, long-term)	7	6 PM	For: ~5.8M shares bought back at $4.80 average against ~$646.6M raised at $8.50. ~16.5M HYPE bought at $46.77 average (42% below today's $80.65 RT-FIX (qual wrote "72% below")). $25M cash floor and multi-year-cost promises kept. No debt; no calls written against HYPE. Against: the sponsor took ~21% at close; the revocable kicker; the Chair's son on payroll; the COO paid via Hong Kong; a $900K CEO bonus on $87K of salary in a partial year; the equity line tripled; and a request to sell below $12.02. PM cut by 1 point: asking to remove the only hard brake while the stock is at 0.91x, with no written floor offered, is a capital-allocation red flag until resolved.
Operations (customer focus, innovation, failure tolerance)	6	6	For: 5 people run ~$3B. Third-largest validator on Hyperliquid; own stake 21.3M → 25.1M HYPE (08-23 to 09-08); third-party delegation 1.3M → 2.3M. Weekly dashboard. Biotech exit done. Against: validator economics are immaterial (CEO 08-27: "doesn't generate a ton of revenue"); single custodian; no non-staking yield.
Structure (talent density, meritocracy, decentralization)	4	4	Talent density is high for finance, near zero for technology. A 3-person Treasury Committee (CEO, CFO, COO) makes the treasury decisions. Board captured by the sponsor; staggered board. "Meritocracy" can't be assessed with 5 people.

Board read 8 seats, DEF 14A 2026-10-02

Director	Role / ties	Status
Bob Diamond (75)	Chair; Atlas founder/CEO; ex-Barclays CEO	Not independent
David Schamis	CEO; Atlas	Not independent
Jeff Tuder	Atlas Operating Partner; CEO of Concord II; co-chair/CFO of Digital Asset Acquisition Corp (DAAQ), a possible competing-vehicle conflict	Not independent
Thomas C. King	Atlas Operating Partner; ex-Barclays investment-bank CEO; ex-SVB director 2022–23	Deemed independent Compensation Chair
Larry Leibowitz	Atlas Operating Partner; ex-NYSE Euronext COO	Deemed independent Nominating Chair
Eric Rosengren	Ex-Boston Fed President; Colby College trustee (Diamond is a Colby Life Trustee and former Chair)	Independent Audit Chair; financial expert
Nailesh Bhatt	Pharma; legacy Sonnet	Filler for a crypto treasury
Albert Dyrness	Legacy Sonnet	Filler; retires 2026-11-04
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld (nominee, 72)	Yale CELI; a prestige governance name, no crypto	Would be independent

Read:

5 of 8 seats are Atlas people or partners.
All three committees are King, Leibowitz and Rosengren: two Atlas Operating Partners plus the Chair's Colby co-trustee.
No director is crypto-native.
The Advisor Rights Agreement lets Rorschach nominate a pro-rata share of the board (always including the Chair) while it owns 10% or more of its post-close stake. Not yet used.
Strong traditional finance and SPAC (special-purpose acquisition company) credentials. Thin crypto and technology bench.

"These people are daddy": the sponsor is at the table, and the sponsor gets paid on raises.

§9 · MOAT & COMPETITION · Stage 6 · data as of 2026-10-14

Moat and competition

In plain English

A moat is what stops competitors from taking your business. PURR's moat is weak: anyone can now buy HYPE through an ETF without paying for PURR's share sales or sponsor warrants. Hyperliquid itself has a real but contestable moat. Neither clears the 9/10 bar for Tier-1 sizing.

PURR (the wrapper)

4 / 10

Gate FAIL · scale, capital access, sponsor brand

No switching costs, no network effects, no process power

Hyperliquid (the protocol)

7 / 10

Gate FAIL · liquidity network effect, self-funded buybacks

Volume share falling; centralized exchanges ~10x larger

PURR (the wrapper): 4/10, gate FAIL

Real edges:

Scale.
- 38.52M HYPE ≈ 16–17% of tracker-reported circulating supply.
- CONFLICT (resolved) The circulating figure is 235.2M per filings (consistent with CoinMarketCap) vs ~222M implied by CoinGecko. The Red Team says it depends on the tracker's definition.
- ~3.9% of the 1B maximum supply; ~8.7% of the 440.4M staked; ~19x Hyperion DeFi's ~2.0M HYPE.
Access to capital. Nasdaq listing; Russell 2000 (06-29); listed options (03-2026); the $2.5B committed line.
Sponsor brand. Diamond/Atlas plus a Paradigm affiliate. Coverage from Cantor, Maxim, Chardan, Compass Point and Siebert.

What's missing: no switching costs, no network effects, no process power. Contestability:

Spot HYPE ETFs offer the same exposure with no mNAV risk, no sponsor warrants and no dilution:
- Bitwise BHYP (05-15; $105M of assets after 11 days)
- 21Shares THYP (05-12; 0.30% fee)
- Grayscale HYPG (filed; launch UNVERIFIED)
PURR's running costs are ~$18M a year = 0.58% of NAV, versus THYP's 0.30%.
If the CFTC lets US users onto Hyperliquid, PURR's access rationale weakens further: the MSTR-after-Bitcoin-ETFs pattern.

running costs ÷ assets = ~$18M ÷ ~$3,128M of NAV = about 0.58% a year. A HYPE ETF charges 0.30%. So owning HYPE through PURR costs roughly twice as much each year, before any dilution.

Hyperliquid (the underlying protocol): 7/10, gate FAIL

Strengths:
- A liquidity network effect: one order book plus one margin engine, with HIP-3 builder markets on the same rails.
- Self-funded; 97–99% of fees go to buybacks.
- The Assistance Fund has ~47.5–48.7M HYPE (September, secondary sources).
- Trailing-12-month fees $909.6M; protocol revenue $689.4M (DefiLlama, 10-14).
Why not 9 or better:
- On-chain volume share fell from ~80% (August 2025) to roughly 31–58% depending on the window CONFLICT (across sources).
- Binance and other centralized exchanges are still ~10x larger.
- Monthly revenue fell ~56% peak to trough before recovering.
- US regulatory status for perps is unresolved.
Open-interest share (the better metric):
- ~63% of DEX perps open interest (company, 08-23).
- ~65% by the qual lane's DefiLlama read on 10-14: Hyperliquid $7.77B + tradeXYZ $3.91B = $11.68B of ~$17.9B.

Bottom line: the HYPE-treasury race is won. The real threat is the wrapper becoming unnecessary.

Competitor comparison: wrappers who owns the HYPE trade

	PURR	HYPE ETFs (BHYP / THYP / HYPG)	Hyperion DeFi (HYPD)
HYPE owned	38.52M (~10-01, company)	BHYP $105M of assets at day 11; October n/a	~2.04M (06-30)
Price vs assets	0.91x tax-adjusted; 0.84x on simple basis RT-FIX	~1.0x by design	~0.26–0.28x [unusable: share count likely misses preferred / pre-funded warrants]
Dilution risk	High (equity line, cap vote, kicker)	None	Likely preferred overhang UNVERIFIED
Cost to own	~0.58% of NAV + sponsor warrants	0.30% (THYP)	n/a
Staking	Yes, ~2%	Yes (both)	Yes (Kinetiq validator)
Extras	Index, options, buybacks, 2x ETF (KATT) on top	Clean, simple	Operating-business strategy
Read	Wins the treasury race	Winning the allocator channel	Losing; can't issue accretively at that discount

Competitor comparison: digital-asset treasury peers quant, 10-14

Peer mNAV = market value ÷ (tokens × spot + cash). Peer token counts are secondary and partly stale.

	PURR	MSTR	BMNR	SBET	HYPD
Price	$9.47	$143.24	$22.25	$7.90	$3.09
Market value	$2.85B fully diluted	$60.65B	$13.42B	$1.72B	$0.047B
Token owned	HYPE 38.52M (10-01, company)	BTC 840,447 (08-23)	ETH 6,016,414 (early Oct)	ETH 888,938 (08-03)	HYPE 2.04M (06-30)
Cash / debt	$263.5M / 0	$2,448M / $6,771M + preferreds	$340M / $1.3M	$56M / 0	$9.6M / $8.9M
mNAV	0.91x tax-adj · 0.84x simple RT-FIX	0.89x (market value) / 0.95x (EV, ex-preferreds)	0.90x	0.78x	~0.28x (suspect)
Share dilution, 12 months	+99% (Dec→Oct)	+58.5%	+1,421%	+3,047%	+198%
Short % of float	8.7% of common RT-FIX	7.3%	5.8%	18.9%	7.6%
Insiders / institutions	3.65% / 45.3% CONFLICT	0.2% / 55.0%	0.66% / 41.5%	7.4% / 51.6%	5.3% / 18.7%
Off 52-week high	−35.8%	−53.6%	−60.3%	−51.2%	−66.2%
Debt	None	Converts + preferreds	~None	None	Small

Price vs assets, like-for-like simple basis

SBET

0.78x

PURR

0.84x

MSTR

0.89x

BMNR

0.90x

HYPD

~0.28x ?

Full bar = 1.0x (price equals assets). HYPD's figure is unusable (share count likely incomplete).

Read:

The whole complex trades at ~0.8–0.95x. The discount is systemic, not PURR-specific.
On a like-for-like simple basis PURR (0.84x) is cheaper than MSTR (0.89x) and BMNR (0.90x).
PURR's edges: zero debt, zero preferred dividends, the largest HYPE treasury, and demonstrated buybacks.
All peers fail the framework's financial gates the same way: free cash flow negative; Rule of 40 and PEG not applicable; earnings misses dominate (MSTR 1 of 8 beats, SBET 0 of 4, BMNR 1 of 4).

Competitor comparison: Hyperliquid vs other perps venues

Venue	Snapshot (dated)	Read
Hyperliquid	62–65% of on-chain perps open interest; 38% of 24-hour on-chain volume (09-08); 9.4% of global perps incl. centralized exchanges (06-30)	Quality leader on open interest
Lighter	$1.62B 24-hour volume (09-25, Cipher); open interest $0.52B + $0.21B (Robinhood)	Gaining volume, largely via incentives
Aster	$1.54B 24-hour volume (09-25); $1.30B open interest; 9.7% of perps-DEX open interest (through 09-24)	Gaining volume via incentives; weaker open-interest quality
Binance and other centralized exchanges	~90% of global perps volume	Still the giant

Hyperliquid wins where it counts most (money left on the table in open positions), but rivals are buying volume with incentives and the big centralized exchanges are still ten times larger. PURR's job is only to own the token, so its moat is the size of its pile, not any business edge.

§10 · EARNINGS TRACKER · Stage 12 · data as of 2026-10-14

Earnings tracker: promises vs delivered

In plain English

PURR has reported three times as a public company. It gives no profit or revenue guidance, so the useful test is whether management did what it said. On that score, it has kept nearly every promise so far. The big untested one is "we only sell stock above 1.1x."

Prints vs estimates

Quarter (reported)	Earnings per share, estimate	Earnings per share, actual	Revenue estimate	Revenue actual	Guidance	Grade
Q2 FY26 (2026-02-11)	−$4.12 or $0.55 (Yahoo, two rows; unreliable)	−$7.43 (10-Q) CONFLICT (Yahoo −$6.56)	n/a	$0.50M	None	Unusable
Q3 FY26 (2026-05-07/08)	$0.21 (Yahoo)	$1.01	n/a	$2.63M	None	"Beat" driven by HYPE price
Q4 FY26 / FY26 (2026-08-27)	$0.78 (Yahoo)	Q4 EPS n/a; Yahoo's −$0.86 is wrong (Q4 net income +$470.9M); FY EPS $3.21	n/a	$6.33M (FY $9.46M)	Running costs ~$4M a quarter (first guide)	Unusable
Q1 FY27 (~11-12/16)	n/a	Pending	n/a	Pending	Track the ~$4M cost guide	—

Fewer than 8 quarters exist, so "8 straight beats" can't be graded. Beats and misses here only measure HYPE's price move during the quarter.

Promises vs delivered (dated)

KEPT 14MISSED 0UNTESTED 3OPEN / TRACKING 6

Date / venue	Promise	Status
~2025-12-08 press release	$30M buyback over 12 months	KEPT. $27.8M used by 08-19; expires ~12-05/08. Renewal not yet announced
2026-02-11 call	Dashboard live that day	KEPT
2026-02-11 call	Keep 100% of HYPE staked	KEPT
2026-02-11 call	Evaluate running a validator	KEPT (05-13)
2026-02-11 call	"No intent to sell" HYPE	KEPT
2026-02-11 call	Issue stock at high mNAV, buy back at low	KEPT
2026-02-11 call	Won't become a venture-style vehicle	KEPT so far (the Guidant stake is legacy)
2026-02-11 call	CLARITY won't explicitly allow perps/DEXs	Watch (the bill stalled 09-15)
2026-05-07 call	Validator live 05-11	KEPT, 2 days late (05-13)
2026-05-07 call	$25M cash is the "bare minimum"	KEPT
2026-05-07 call	Hold multiple years of running costs in cash	KEPT ($263.5M vs ~$16–18M a year)
2026-05-07 call	Never issue equity under stress to keep the lights on	Untested
2026-05-07 call	0.9–1.1x band, "both numbers will be going up over time"	KEPT. Issued at ~1.15x average through 06-30
2026-05-07 call	Would sell HYPE to buy back stock at a serious discount if cash is at minimum	Untested
2026-05-07 call	Live tokens-outstanding math on the website	KEPT
2026-05-07 call	Keep buying HYPE "pretty consistently"	KEPT
2026-08-27 call	Running costs about $4M a quarter (CFO)	Track at Q1 FY27
2026-08-27 call	Average HYPE cost will rise above $46.77	Track (September buys at ~$85–95 EST)
2026-08-27 call	Issue only when net proceeds exceed 1.1x mNAV (1.0x with the tax bill added back)	CRITICAL TEST after the 11-04 vote and in the Q1 FY27 10-Q
2026-08-27 call	High bar on ecosystem investments, "say no to 95%+"	Track
2026-08-27 call	Help Hyperliquid with US access (no details)	Open
2026-08-27 call	HYPE's correlation to Bitcoin will fall over time	Watch. 90-day HYPE→BTC beta is 1.19, correlation 0.64, both rising

Score: 14 kept, 0 missed, 3 untested, 6 open or tracking.

management keeps its word on operations. The one promise that matters most for per-share value is the one not yet tested under pressure.

§12 · VALUATION & SCENARIOS · Stage 8 · data as of 2026-10-14

Valuation and scenarios

In plain English

You value PURR by what it owns, not by its earnings or sales. Today one share owns $10.41 of HYPE and cash after tax, and costs $9.47. Where the stock goes depends almost entirely on two things: HYPE's price, and how much investors will pay for the wrapper (historically 0.65x to 1.3x what it owns).

Scenario range: where $9.47 sits (12–24-month values)

Dots are scenario values from this tab and the Red Team tab. The shaded box is where puts are sold ($7–8 strikes; the preferred Dec-18 $8 put has a $7.375 cost basis). Today's price sits just below net asset value ($10.41) and below the probability-weighted value ($10.83).

Current multiples with worked examples

Lens	Value	Worked example	Read
mNAV (price ÷ net asset value per share)	0.91x	$9.47 ÷ $10.41	The correct lens. "Aware" band
mNAV, tax bill excluded	0.835x	$9.47 ÷ $11.34	How some trackers quote it
mNAV on 304.86M shares	0.92–0.93x	NAV $10.21–10.26	Share-count uncertainty, ±2%
purrmnav.com (10-14)	0.97x	NAV $9.81	CONFLICT Third-party basis; not used
Price-implied HYPE	$72.29	The HYPE price that makes NAV = $9.47	~11% below spot
EV ÷ HYPE value	0.82x	$2,582M ÷ $3,141.6M
Price-to-sales (P/S: market value ÷ yearly revenue)	278.6x	$2,635M ÷ $9.46M	Meaningless for a treasury
Price-to-earnings, trailing / forward	2.95x / 25.6x	Yahoo	Noise from mark-to-market
Price-to-book (P/B)	1.15x on the 06-30 book of $8.25 per share as-converted	$9.47 ÷ $8.25	Stale
PEG, price-to-free-cash-flow, EV ÷ EBITDA	n/a	—	No earnings growth, no cash flow

Net asset value build dashboard inputs, ~10-01 data, 10-14 prices

What one share owns

HYPE: 38.52M × $81.56

$3,141.6M

$10.47

Cash

+$263.5M

$0.88

Tax bill: 21.05% × ($3,141.6M − $1,815.09M)

−$279.2M

−$0.93

Reconciling plug

+$2.2M

—

Adjusted NAV (on 300.55M shares)

$3,128.2M

$10.41

HYPE $10.47$0.88−$0.93

HYPE per sharecash per sharetax bill per share (subtracted)

Component	$M	Per share
HYPE: 38.52M × $81.56	3,141.6	$10.47
Cash	+263.5	$0.88
Tax bill: 21.05% × ($3,141.6M − $1,815.09M)	−279.2	−$0.93
Reconciling plug	+2.2	—
Adjusted NAV	3,128.2	$10.41 (on 300.55M shares)

CONFLICT (minor) The Red Team's $10.40 is a rounding difference. Stale-input NAVs from other lanes are superseded RT-FIX: Technicals $9.86 (29.3M HYPE, 224.4M shares), Macro $9.82 / $8.52, Sentiment $9.91.
With all warrants exercised for cash: 333.5M shares, NAV $10.52.

Upside capture [Red Team].

Above the $47.12 tax basis, each +$1 of HYPE adds only $0.101 to NAV per share: 0.128 HYPE × (1 − 0.2105).
Below $47.12, each −$1 removes the full $0.128.

per 1,000 PURR shares (~128 HYPE), HYPE +$10 gives a direct owner of those 128 HYPE +$1,282 but PURR NAV +$1,012.

PURR keeps ~79% of HYPE's upside and takes 100% of the downside below $47.

mNAV history since listing EST quant weekly interpolation

Price ÷ assets (mNAV), snapshots since listing

Estimated and interpolated, tax-adjusted basis. Shaded bands are this report's mNAV bands: 0.65–0.75x "left for dead" (hunting ground), 0.9–1.0x "aware", 1.2–1.3x "excited / euphoric". Dashed line: the 1.011x mean.

Range 0.763x (2025-12-29) to 1.265x (2026-06-02). Mean 1.011x, median 1.007x. This matches Capital Flows' 0.77–1.30x (average ~1.04).
Snapshots: Dec-3 0.86 · Dec-31 0.91 · Mar-31 1.04 · Apr-29 1.01 · Jun-30 0.96 · Jul-24 0.83 · Aug-21 1.13 · Sep-18 1.25 · Oct-1 1.09 · Oct-14 0.91.
What re-rated it: nothing permanent. The multiple mean-reverts around 1.0x and follows HYPE momentum. Premiums appeared in HYPE rallies (May–June, late Aug–Sep), discounts in HYPE drawdowns (Dec–Jan, July).

Issuance discipline the accretion test

Period	Shares issued	Gross	Average price	Context	Verdict
Apr-1 to Apr-29	~6.09M	$38.4M	$6.31	mNAV ~1.0–1.05x	About neutral
Apr-29 to Jun-30	~70.0M	~$608M	~$8.69	NAV per share ran $5.75 → $8.24; mNAV ~1.07–1.23x EST	Accretive
Jul-1 to Sep-8	36.89M	$424.9M	$11.52	NAV per share ~$9.4–10.7; ~1.13–1.19x EST	Accretive
Sep-8 to Oct-1	~35.5–40.4M EST	~$515M EST	~$12.7–14.5 EST	NAV per share ~$11; ~1.13–1.25x	Accretive EST (the exact figures arrive in the 10-Q)
Buybacks	−3.07M (Dec–Mar) and −2.7M (July)	$10.5M + $17.3M	$3.42 and ~$6.41	RT-FIX 0.70–0.87x (Dec–Mar) and ~0.83–0.95x (July); the macro lane's "0.65–0.77x" was too low	Accretive

Accretion breakeven ≈ 1.015x (Chardan pays 98.5% of the day's average price; 1 ÷ 0.985 = 1.015). Effect on HYPE per 1,000 shares of selling $100M of stock:

127.64sold at 0.9x (from 128.17)

128.08sold at 1.0x

128.45sold at 1.1x

129.02sold at 1.3x

at 0.9x: 128.17 → 127.64
at 1.0x: 128.08
at 1.1x: 128.45
at 1.3x: 129.02

management issued above ~1.1x and bought back below ~0.9x, as promised. But the premiums were thin, so per-share HYPE barely moved (+2.8% raw since 03-31). Selling $100M at 0.9x would cost every 1,000 shares about half a HYPE token; selling at 1.3x would add less than one.

Bull / base / bear 12–24 months, dilution-adjusted

Assumptions (quant):

Start at 300.55M shares and 38.52M HYPE.
Staking adds 2% a year; running costs $18M a year.
Tax basis $1,815M plus new purchases.
New stock sold at 98.5% of NAV × the multiple.
The P/S band does not apply. The mNAV bands below replace it.

Deep bear · Q1-2026 replay

$2.72

−71% · HYPE $25 · 0.65x "left for dead" · $50M buyback

Bear

$4.59

−51% · HYPE $40 · 0.75x · $50M buyback, no issuance

Base

$11.55

+22% · HYPE $90 · 1.0x "aware" · $500M of stock sold at 1.1x

Bull

$23.29

+146% · HYPE $150 · 1.3x "excited" · ~$0.9B sold at 1.3x + all 27.4M sponsor warrants exercised

Scenario	HYPE	mNAV	mNAV band	Capital actions	Shares	HYPE owned	Tax bill	NAV/share	HYPE per 1,000 shares	PURR	vs $9.47
Deep bear (Q1-2026 replay)	$25	0.65x	Left for dead	$50M buyback	281.7M	39.68M	$0	$4.18	140.8	$2.72	−71%
Bear	$40	0.75x	Left for dead	$50M buyback, no issuance	289.6M	39.68M	$0	$6.12	137.0	$4.59	−51%
Base	$90	1.0x	Aware	$500M of stock sold at 1.1x	340.9M	45.23M	$370M	$11.55	132.7	$11.55	+22%
Bull	$150	1.3x	Excited / euphoric	Remaining ~$0.9B sold at 1.3x + all 27.4M sponsor warrants exercised	367.7M	48.15M	$871M	$17.92	131.0	$23.29	+146%

mNAV bands (PM mapping of the framework's P/S ladder): 0.65–0.75x = "left for dead" (hunting ground) · 0.9–1.0x = "aware" · 1.2–1.3x = "excited / euphoric."
In the bull case, HYPE per share falls vs base, because the in-the-money sponsor warrants ($9.375–$18.75) dilute.
Probability-weighted PMEST: 15% deep bear, 25% bear, 40% base, 20% bull.

0.15 × $2.72 + 0.25 × $4.59 + 0.40 × $11.55 + 0.20 × $23.29 = $0.41 + $1.15 + $4.62 + $4.66 = $10.83, which is +14% from $9.47.

the positive expected value comes entirely from HYPE rising. It is a HYPE bet with a wrapper drag, not a PURR-specific edge. The Red Team's ten downside cases average $5.71 (−40%).

Price grid PURR price by HYPE level and mNAV; quant

HYPE	NAV/share	0.75x	0.9x	1.0x	1.1x	1.3x
$40	6.01	4.51	5.41	6.01	6.61	7.82
$50	7.22	5.41	6.49	7.22	7.94	9.38
$60	8.23	6.17	7.41	8.23	9.05	10.70
$70	9.24	6.93	8.32	9.24	10.16	12.01
$81.56	10.41	7.81	9.37	10.41	11.45	13.53
$90	11.26	8.45	10.14	11.26	12.39	14.64
$100	12.28	9.21	11.05	12.28	13.50	15.96
$120	14.30	10.73	12.87	14.30	15.73	18.59

How to read it: pick a HYPE price (row) and a multiple (column). At today's HYPE ($81.56) and today's 0.9x, the grid gives $9.37, close to the actual $9.47. On a phone, swipe the table sideways.

Peer multiples

See §9 (Management & Moat tab, DAT peer table): PURR 0.84x simple, MSTR 0.89x, BMNR 0.90x, SBET 0.78x, HYPD unusable. Peer standard multiples (P/S, P/E, PEG) are equally meaningless across the complex.

§11 · SENTIMENT & POSITIONING · Stage 7 · data as of 2026-10-14

Sentiment and positioning

In plain English

Wall Street analysts all say Buy. Retail traders have turned sharply bearish after the stock fell 36% in three weeks, about three times as much as HYPE. Neither side shows the "everyone has given up" signal that marks a contrarian bottom. No edge today.

Price path

All-time high $14.76 intraday (09-21). Closes: $14.09 (09-24) → $12.92 (10-05) → $9.47 (10-14). That is −33% since 09-24 and 7 straight down days.
HYPE over the same window: $92.00 → $80.81 (−12.2%). PURR fell ~2.7x as much, so about two-thirds of the drop is the multiple compressing.
Volume 11.84M on 10-14 vs a 30-day average of 20.5M. An orderly decline, not capitulation.

Narrative map: three stories

Story	Dominant	Evidence	Implied mNAV
A. "Cleanest US-listed HYPE proxy, Druckenmiller-blessed, with CFTC onshore optionality"	08-14 → 09-21	Duquesne 13F; Brick Accretive ("the name in the space right now"); Cantor $34.20; KATT 2x ETF launch	1.1x or higher
B. "Dilution machine"	Since ~09-25	Equity line $1B → $2.5B (09-01, −7.3% that day); 160M-share resale S-1 (09-15, effective 09-23; −7.7% on 09-25); proxy asks to lift the cap (10-02)	Below 1x, sticky
C. "The treasury model is broken / HYPE supply overhang"	Background	Sector-wide treasury discounts (Fortune 10-05 "death spiral"); HYPE "sell the news" on its Binance spot listing; the 10-06 unlock (3.75M OTC vs ~9.9M, unreconciled)	HYPE lower and multiple lower

Price is discounting B (primary) plus some of C. At 0.91x, B is about half priced. A full B outcome (cap lifted, issuance at a discount) is ~0.78–0.85x.

Analyst view (Wall Street brokers)

Distribution (MarketBeat 10-14): 1 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell.
Targets: low $10.00, average $19.80, high $34.20. CONFLICT StockAnalysis averages $22.33 from 4 analysts; Investing.com $13.05 and TipRanks $9.50 are stale.
Last 5 changes:
1. 10-08 Weiss: Hold → Buy (B−). A momentum-driven quant rating, so it lags.
2. 09-14 Compass Point (Engel): initiated Buy, $18. Same day as the line amendment 8-Ks.
3. 09-10 Cantor (Gacetta): Overweight, $22.60 → $34.20. Cantor's path: $5 (Dec-25) → $8 → $18.40 (07-01) → $22.60 → $34.20. Cantor hosted management in Singapore 10/6–7.
4. 08-28 Chardan (McIlree): Buy, $9.75 → $17. Chardan is the equity-line buyer and is registered to resell up to 160M shares: a direct conflict.
5. 04-24 Maxim (Galinko): initiated Buy, $10.
Why they're bullish: every target is a HYPE price call times an assumed multiple of 1x or more. None models per-share decay from below-NAV issuance.
What the targets require RT-FIX: at 300.55M shares and 1.0x, the $19.80 average needs HYPE ≈ $174.5. The $34.20 high needs HYPE ≈ $317. Sentiment's "$160" and "$250+" were understated.

Positioning

Short interest (MarketBeat / FINRA):

Settlement date	Shares short	% of float (as reported)	Days to cover
2025-12-31	0.30M	0.2%	0.3
2026-03-31	9.23M	7.0%	1.4
2026-06-30	19.99M	15.1%	1.15
2026-07-31 (peak %)	24.75M	18.7%	2.8
2026-08-14	23.94M	18.1%	4.06
2026-08-31 (peak shares)	28.65M	15.8%	0.89
2026-09-15	24.59M	11.3%	1.09
2026-09-30	24.15M	9.5% reported; ~8.7% of common RT-FIX	0.96

Short shares have been flat at ~24M since July. The falling percentage is share growth, not covering.
Likely mix: basis traders (short PURR, long HYPE) plus shorts fading the issuance.
Borrow fee n/a (Fintel blocked access).

Institutions:

The Q2-2026 13F cycle shows new or continued positions:
- Paradigm Operations 5,709,852 (sponsor affiliate)
- Duquesne 2.94M (new; $23.15M; 0.44% of its book)
- Wealth High Governance 828,048
- Tidal 671,514 (likely the KATT issuer)
- Bank of America 635,407
- SPX Gestão 109,330
- Wellington 91,000
- Engineers Gate 67,728
The one trim: Winton −88.1% to 15,600.
Proxy (as of 09-08): "no holders of more than 5%." Ownership is diffuse.

Insiders: zero open-market trades (§8). Options:

Monthly open interest is deep. Dec-18: 48.8k puts / 177.8k calls. Nov-20: 8.9k / 81.0k.
Unusual call concentration: Nov-20 $11 call 30,819 contracts; Dec-18 $20 call 29,851.

Retail

StockTwits (10-14): "Extremely Bearish." One heavy short-poster dominates the board.
- 10-13 NetflixUser: "$PURR still in full short position! Targeting $9.70 to get out."
- 10-12 NetflixUser: "this is what happens when companies dilute shareholders lololol bulls so quiet."
- 10-13 jeromebailey: "That guy Netflixuser has single-handedly impacted the sentiment on this stock with his relentless posting."
- 10-10 DoubleETrader: "Buy the dip on PURR. Accumulate. Earnings coming next month."
- 10-06 Teddy518: "possibly touch $15 ATH if $HYPE.X reach $100 ATH this week." This was the euphoria marker; PURR was at $12.5–12.9.
Substack:
- Brick Accretive (08-25), bull: "Convexity over conviction." Recommended Oct $15 calls, now far out of the money.
- Honeybear Financial (06-09), neutral: "The discount that isn't." Would add only at ~0.90x; 12-month target $12.30.
- Artemis (~Sep), bull: ~1.12x. Wrongly states "zero preferreds" RT-FIX.
- Seeking Alpha JP Research (03-25), bear: "Fade The Crypto HYPE."
Reddit: no PURR threads. This is a crypto-Twitter and StockTwits story.
Leverage tell: the T-REX 2X Long PURR ETF (KATT) launched 09-09, 12 days before the all-time high. A classic late-cycle crowding sign. Assets n/a.

Who is the marginal buyer?

Marginal seller: Chardan, under the equity line. Its 4.99% ownership cap forces it to resell everything it buys: ~113M shares through 09-08, with up to 160M more registered.
Marginal buyers: HYPE-proxy retail and options traders, KATT creations, crypto-specialist funds, and short covering by basis traders.
Without new HYPE upside, the issuer itself sets the price.

What the market gets wrong

1 · A BULL-SIDE ERROR

The stale-share-count illusion

Free aggregators still show 197.8M shares: StockAnalysis lists a $1.87B market value, and DefiLlama showed 0.66x mNAV on 10-08.
The real count is 278.27M common, ~300–305M as-converted, plus 28.66M warrants. Retail screens show a 30%+ "discount" that doesn't exist; the real figure is ~0.91x.
Buyers anchored on "cheap vs NAV" become forced sellers if HYPE slips.

2 · A BEAR-SIDE ERROR

Retail aims its dilution fear at the wrong period

The Q3 2026 issuance was roughly neutral per share. Sales at ~$11–14 were above the ~$10–12 NAV at the time; raw HYPE per share stayed ~125–131.
The underpriced risks are forward and dated: the 11-04 vote, the buyback expiry ~12-05/08 and the sponsor kicker (revocable on two weeks' notice).
RT-FIX The Dec-2 advisor lockup is probably not a cliff. It likely lapsed when PURR first printed 150% of the advisor's acquisition price, possibly 05-29 (§13). The warrants and shares were already distributed to individuals on 08-31 and 09-17.

Sell-side targets are HYPE calls with conflicted authors

The $19.80 average needs HYPE $174.5 at 1.0x.
A fair range is PURR = NAV × 0.85–1.0x minus issuance drag. At HYPE $81.56 that is $8.85–10.41.
The price ($9.47) sits in the lower half of that band, not at a "109% upside" discount.

Contrarian verdict Stage 7

NEUTRAL / NO CONTRARIAN EDGE.

It is not "unanimous retail bulls, walk away": retail is bearish.
It is not "unanimous despair with an executing roadmap": mNAV is 0.91x, shorts aren't capitulating, the sell-side is still euphoric, and management is asking for more room to issue rather than buying back.
"You can't borrow conviction": the bull case rests on borrowed conviction (a 13F and conflicted research).

Contrarian green light needs ALL of

mNAV 0.85x or below on true as-converted shares. At HYPE $81.56 that is PURR ≤ $8.85.
Visible buybacks or a new authorization before ~12-05, with equity-line sales stopped below NAV.
StockTwits/X capitulation.
Q3 13Fs (by 11-14) showing institutions kept or added.

Overrides

The 11-04 vote passes AND Chardan prints below NAV.
Or insiders sell distributed advisor shares.

§13 · RED TEAM · Stage 10 · data as of 2026-10-14

Red Team: the bear case and the PM's response

In plain English

An independent analyst argued the short case as hard as possible and audited the other lanes. The case: PURR has delivered exactly HYPE's return while charging more than a HYPE fund, paying its sponsor first, and preparing to sell stock below its asset value. Most bad outcomes land 17–55% lower. Three of them don't need HYPE to fall at all.

The bear case (Red Team, not softened)

Verdict: no long at $9.47. 0.91x is not a margin of safety.

The bear's 12-month number is $5.80–7.35 (−22% to −39%), centered near $6.40:

Low end: HYPE $50 at 0.80x = $5.80.
High end: HYPE flat at a permanent 0.70x = $7.35.

Zero extra return.
- Since the first close: PURR +143% vs HYPE +141%.
- Since 03-31: PURR +86% vs HYPE +123%.
- Since 06-30: PURR +20% vs HYPE +25%.
- After-tax HYPE-equivalent per 1,000 shares fell 134.4 → 127.5 (−5.1%) while ~$1.59B of stock was sold "at a premium."
79% of the upside, 100% of the downside below $47.12. This is the tax bill's asymmetry.
Costs more than a fund, plus a sponsor tax.
- Running costs are 0.58% of NAV vs THYP's 0.30%.
- The sponsor took $183.6M at close (21% of $880.4M).
- The $169.2M contribution gap brings the total to ~$353M (40%) out of ordinary owners' pockets at the start.
- 27.39M warrants (9.1% of shares) skim the upside.
The sponsor can switch its 5% + 15% back on with two weeks' notice. CEO Schamis manages the Advisor. Applied to the remaining ~$0.9B at ~$11: ~4.1M free shares + 12.3M warrants.
Nov 4 removes the only hard brake.
- Accretion needs 1.015x (1.026x under the older 97.5% terms); today is 0.91x.
- "Equity sales generally require an mNAV above an established target ratio" is policy, not contract. The ratio is not stated.
- Chardan's 4.99% cap forces it to resell every share.
Nobody inside is buying. $0 of insider purchases, even at $3.01–3.42. The buyback has ~$2.2M left.
The underlying is volatile with many substitutes.
- Hyperliquid revenue fell 56% (Oct-2025 → Apr-2026).
- 238M HYPE of contributor unlocks run through 2027–28.
- Spot HYPE ETFs exist.
- HYPE fell ~64% from its ~$59 September-2025 peak to $21.09 in January 2026 RT-FIX (macro said ~75%), and the wrapper discount widened at the same time.

Ten downside scenarios (plus one upside) and the PM's response

In plain English

Each scenario asks "what if this one thing goes wrong?" and works out the share price that would follow. The probabilities overlap, so they don't add up to 100%. The plan is built so that even the bad ones are survivable at the position size used.

Method (Red Team): PURR price = NAV per share × mNAV.

NAV = (HYPE owned × HYPE price + cash − 21.05% × gains above the $1,815M tax basis) ÷ shares.
Start: 38.52M HYPE, $263.5M cash, 300.55M shares, −$18M a year of cash costs, +2% a year staking.
Operating cash flow stays at about −$18M a year in every case, because staking is paid in HYPE.
The probabilities overlap and don't sum to 100%.

Downside map: implied price by scenario (dot size = probability)

D1–D10 are the ten downside cases; U is the upside case at $22.12, off this scale to the right. The simple average of the ten downside prices is $5.71 (−40%). Scenarios D2, D3 and D10 don't need HYPE to fall.

D1 · 20%$4.23

Crypto bear replayBTC loses $80K; HYPE revisits its Jan-2026 range. HYPE $40 · 0.70x · −55%.
ACCEPT

D2 · 15%$7.74

Stock sold below NAV after 11-04Cap lifted; $400M sold at 0.88x. HYPE flat · 0.78x · −18%.
ACCEPT + BREAKER

D3 · 7%$7.87

Sponsor revokes the waiver5% + 15% on the last ~$0.9B. HYPE flat · 0.80x · −17%.
ACCEPT + BREAKER

D4 · 5%$2.80

Exchange exploit or manipulationJELLY-style loss or validator/bridge failure. HYPE $30 · 0.60x · −70%.
ACCEPT AS THE TAIL

D5 · 5%$3.95

US enforcement or fund-law problemCFTC/Justice action, or HYPE ruled a security. HYPE $45 · 0.60x · −58%.
ACCEPT

D6 · 3%$5.92

Custody or slashing loss (10% of tokens)38.5M → 34.7M HYPE. HYPE $70 · 0.70x · −37%.
MITIGATE

D7 · 20%$6.38

Contributor unlock selling~9.9M HYPE a month claimed and sold. HYPE $57 · 0.80x · −33%.
MITIGATE: PARTLY REJECT SIZE

D8 · 15%$5.80

Volume and fee decayMonthly revenue back to ~$40M. HYPE $50 · 0.80x · −39%.
ACCEPT

D9 · 15%$4.32

Liquidity squeeze or credit eventFed hikes; low-grade credit blows out. HYPE $41 · 0.70x · −54%.
ACCEPT

D10 · 25%$7.35

Permanent closed-end-fund discountHYPE ETFs absorb demand. HYPE flat · 0.70x · −22%. The most likely bad case.
MITIGATE

U · 15%$22.12

UpsideHYPE $150; ~$0.9B sold at 1.3x; all sponsor warrants exercised. 1.30x · +134%.
CONSISTENT WITH BULL

#	Scenario and trigger	Prob.	Mechanics	HYPE	Shares (M)	NAV/share	mNAV	Price	vs $9.47	PM response
1	Crypto bear replay. BTC loses $80K; HYPE revisits its Jan-2026 range	20%	Staking ≈ 39.3M × 2% × $40 = $15.7M a year; line shut	$40	300.6	$6.05	0.70	$4.23	−55%	ACCEPT. The central risk with macro RED. Handled by no stock purchases, put strikes of $8 or lower, and sizing so a fall to $4 costs ≤0.7% of the portfolio at starter size.
2	Stock sold below NAV after 11-04. Cap lifted; $400M sold at 0.88x × 98.5%	15%	Issue price 0.88 × $10.40 × 0.985 = $9.01; $400M ÷ $9.01 = 44.3M new shares (+15%); NAV −4.5%; the "dilution machine" story sets 0.78x	$81.56	344.9	$9.93	0.78	$7.74	−18%	ACCEPT + BREAKER. Any disclosed tranche below 1.015x NAV = stop selling puts (§16). Mitigant: management's 1.1x record and its own buyback-vs-issue switch.
3	Sponsor revokes the waiver. Two weeks' notice, then 5% + 15% on the last ~$0.9B at ~$11	7%	+81.8M line shares, +4.1M free sponsor shares, +12.3M warrants	$81.56	388.3	$9.83	0.80	$7.87	−17%	ACCEPT + BREAKER. Any revocation notice = halt. Probability is low while the stock is below 1.0x (no raises to tax).
4	Exchange exploit or manipulation. A JELLY-style (March 2025) liquidity-vault loss, or a validator/bridge failure	5%	Fees collapse; buyback bid shrinks	$30	300.6	$4.66	0.60	$2.80	−70%	ACCEPT as the tail. At ≤2.5% of the portfolio assigned, −70% = −1.75%. Survivable. This is why sizing stays small.
5	US enforcement or fund-law problem. CFTC/Justice Department action, or HYPE ruled a security forcing Investment Company Act registration	5%	Index and fund demand leaves; possible restructuring	$45	300.6	$6.58	0.60	$3.95	−58%	ACCEPT. Unhedgeable. Sizing handles it. Monitor CFTC news.
6	Custody or slashing loss (10% of tokens). Validator operator fault (liability cap undisclosed) or an Anchorage incident	3%	38.5M → 34.7M HYPE	$70	300.6	$8.46	0.70	$5.92	−37%	MITIGATE. "No slashing incidents" as of 09-08. Any incident = breaker. Liability cap is a known-unknown.
7	Contributor unlock selling. ~9.9M HYPE a month on the linear model; claims speed up and get sold	20%	Staking ≈ $22M a year	$57	300.6	$7.97	0.80	$6.38	−33%	MITIGATE: partly reject the size. Actual claims ran far below the model (~3.19M by March 2026; the 10-06 tranche 3.75M OTC). Keep the probability, track monthly claims.
8	Volume and fee decay. Monthly revenue back to ~$40M as incentive-paying rivals win; buyback bid halves	15%	Staking ≈ $20M a year	$50	300.6	$7.25	0.80	$5.80	−39%	ACCEPT. The April-2026 precedent is real. KPI #5 tracks it monthly. Below $45M a month = halt adds.
9	Liquidity squeeze or credit event. Fed hikes 10-28 or in December; low-grade credit blows out (CCC already +182 bps in 20 days)	15%	Line shut; buyback needs a new authorization	$41	300.6	$6.18	0.70	$4.32	−54%	ACCEPT. This is the macro RED rationale and why no stock is bought. Puts are sized for it.
10	Permanent closed-end-fund discount. HYPE ETFs absorb demand; PURR trades like a closed-end fund	25%	Shares flat; the line is useless	$81.56	300.6	$10.51	0.70	$7.35	−22%	MITIGATE. The most likely bad case. A put seller at the Dec $8 strike (basis $7.375) is assigned at ~0.70x, right at this scenario's price. That is the point of the strike choice. Reject "permanent": a $100M+ buyback at 0.70x would add ~4% NAV per share per $100M EST.
U	Upside. HYPE $150; remaining ~$0.9B sold at 1.3x; all 27.4M sponsor warrants exercised	15%	+$370.9M of warrant cash; ~388M shares	$150	~388	$17.02	1.30	$22.12	+134%	Consistent with the quant bull case ($23.29). The CAMT cash-tax trap applies here (§7g).

Red Team read

The simple average of the ten downside prices is $5.71 (−40%). Scenarios 2, 3 and 10 don't need HYPE to fall.

PM's read

The bear is right that 0.91x is not cheap enough to own the stock. The bear is wrong that nothing works. Selling puts at $8 or lower is paid to wait for scenario 10's price ($7.35). The no-debt balance sheet removes the forced-seller spiral that makes levered treasuries go to zero.

the plan does not argue with the bear about the stock. It agrees the stock is not cheap enough, and only agrees to buy at prices near the bear's own 12-month number, while being paid a premium to wait.

Red Team audit: corrections applied in this report

In plain English

The Red Team also checked everyone else's math. These are the 25 fixes. Every corrected number is already used everywhere else on this page.

HYPE per share: quant's "+2.8%" (raw tokens) is paired with the −5.1% after-tax HYPE-equivalent figure. Both are shown; the PM uses the after-tax figure as the master metric.
Peer comparison: PURR on the simple basis is 0.84x, not 0.91x, next to peers.
Short interest: ~8.7% of common, not 12.4% or 9.5%.
Equity line average price received: $8.50, not $8.70.
Qual arithmetic: $46.77 is 42% below $80.65, not 72%.
mNAV compression: on one basis it is 1.13x → 0.91x, not "1.35x → 0.84–0.97x."
Advisor lockup:
- Per the 10-K, it ends on a single last-sale print of 150% of the Advisor's acquisition price. It is not "20 of 30 days."
- Advisor shares were valued at $48.9M ÷ 7.76M = $6.30. If the acquisition price is ~$6.25, the trigger is $9.375, and PURR closed $9.99 on 2026-05-29.
- The lockup has likely already lapsed UNVERIFIED; the 08-31 and 09-17 distributions support this. December 2 is probably not a cliff.
The September amendments raised PURR's price from Chardan (97.5% → 98.5%; after hours 95.0% → 97.0%). They did not lower it.
10-K policy: "no equity sales while an active share repurchase program is in effect and activated." It is a switch, not a contradiction.
Sell-side target math: $19.80 needs HYPE $174.5; $34.20 needs HYPE $317.
Market value: $2.846B fully diluted, not $2.635B (common only).
NAV inputs: company dashboard (38.52M HYPE, $263.53M cash) replaces TokenPost (37.0M, $292.6M).
Technicals' NAV: $9.86 → $10.40–10.41. Every technicals mNAV label is overstated ~5.5% (corrected in §15).
Technicals' "$1.85B of line left" → ~$1.4B at 09-08 (424B3), ~$0.91B at 10-01 EST.
The "1.30x if shares exist without HYPE" case is ruled out: the dashboard shows 38.52M HYPE against 300.04M shares.
Macro's NAV cases (0.96x / 1.11x) use stale cash or mismatched dates → 0.91x.
Macro's tax basis "$50" → $47.12 per HYPE. The tax bill at spot is $279.2M, not ~$214M.
Macro's "HYPE −75%" → ~−64% from a ~$59 peak.
Macro's buyback multiple "0.65–0.77x" → 0.70–0.87x (Dec–Mar) and ~0.83–0.95x (July).
Put-strike rule "≤0.75x ≈ $7.35–7.40" → 0.75 × $10.41 = $7.80.
Circulating supply "235.2M looks low" → consistent with CoinMarketCap. ~222M on CoinGecko; depends on definition.
Staking "$68M a year" is gross and non-cash; its tax treatment is uncertain.
Artemis's "zero preferreds" is false (166,173 Series A).
HYPD's 0.26–0.28x is unverifiable; not used as a comparable.
Buyback expiry "Dec 5" vs "~Dec 8": authorized ~2025-12-08 for 12 months; exact end unverified.

§14 · KNOWN-UNKNOWNS LEDGER · deduped across all lanes, ranked by impact · data as of 2026-10-14

Known-unknowns ledger

In plain English

These are the things we know we don't know, ranked by how much each could move the stock. The thesis is done when every one that can be surfaced has been.

Rank	Unknown	Why it matters	Resolves by
1	Equity-line sales since 09-08: shares, prices received, how much of the 42.64M capped allowance is used, and whether anything sold during the 10-05 → 10-14 slide ($12.92 → $9.47) at or below NAV	Decides whether "accretive issuance" survived September	Q1 FY27 10-Q (~11-12/16) or the next 424B3
2	Nov-4 vote outcome, and whether management commits in writing to no issuance below 1.0x tax-adjusted NAV. The "established target ratio" is unstated	Removes or keeps the hard brake	2026-11-04
3	Sponsor waiver: does it cover the $2.5B upsize? What triggers revocation? Who decides, given Schamis manages the Advisor?	~20% tax on future raises	Proxy Q&A / 8-K
4	Advisor lockup status. The acquisition price behind the 150% test; if ~$6.25, it ended 05-29	7.76M shares + warrants possibly already free	10-Q / Form 4s
5	Buyback re-authorization before ~12-05/08, and its size and exact expiry	The only below-NAV defense	8-K by ~12-08
6	Share-count gap: 300.04M (dashboard) vs 304.86M (proxy). Treasury shares, preferred, or timing?	±2% on NAV	Q1 FY27 10-Q cover
7	HYPE and cash after 10-01, buybacks since 08-19, and the cost of September purchases (~$0.8B bought at $85–95 may be underwater at $81.56 EST)	NAV and average cost	Dashboard (weekly; next 10-15); 10-Q
8	Contributor unlocks: actual monthly claims and sales; who bought the 3.75M OTC tranche on 10-06 (was it PURR?); 3.75M vs ~9.9M disputed	Supply overhang on HYPE	Tokenomist; on-chain
9	US legal status of Hyperliquid perps; investment-company risk if HYPE is ruled a security	Forced restructuring tail	No date
10	CAMT and staking-reward tax: do unrealized gains count toward the $1B test? Timing of any cash tax	Cash tax with no cash income	IRS guidance; 10-Q
11	Validator operator's liability cap ("customary," no number) with 75.7% of HYPE on that validator	Sizes the slashing tail	Not disclosed
12	Hyperliquid's true volume share (31% vs 38% vs 58% vs 68%, depending on source and window), and whether HIP-3 builder fees reach the buyback	Moat trend	DefiLlama Pro (paywalled)
13	HYPE ETF assets and flows (BHYP, THYP, HYPG launch status)	Speed of wrapper substitution	Issuer sites
14	Who owns the equity-line paper; institutional ownership 9.45% vs 45.3%	Marginal buyer quality	Q3 13Fs, 11-14
15	What the 24M short is (basis trade vs directional); borrow fee	Squeeze or pressure	Fintel (blocked)
16	Chardan's resale pace and venue	Daily supply	424B3s
17	Corporate minimum tax relief status (Notice 2025-49 not final)	Upside cash tax	IRS
18	COO's Triller/AGBA record; Hong Kong pay arrangement via SBR Ltd	Governance	Diligence
19	Q1 FY27 report date (11-12 vs 11-16); any HYPE sold under the "price exceeds fundamental value" clause ("fundamental value" is undefined)	Event timing; a hidden HYPE-sale right	Company IR
20	Q4 FY26 weighted shares and EPS; no reliable consensus; Compass Point model not seen	Earnings tracker	10-K details
21	Peer data: HYPD fully diluted shares; MSTR current BTC and preferred stack; SBET and BMNR primary filings	Comparable set	Primary filings
22	Options data: IV rank and history; borrow; what sits behind 30,819 open interest on the Nov-20 $11 call; KATT assets	Wheel pricing	MarketChameleon / Barchart
23	Post-CPI Fed odds for 10-28; October crypto ETF flows	Macro flip	CME FedWatch
24	Hyperliquid circulating supply definition (235.2M vs ~222M)	PURR's share of float	Trackers
25	Transcripts not fully read: 2026-02-11 call (summary only); Talking Tokens and HL Radio mNAV remarks	Promise tracker completeness	Retrieval

§15 · TRADE PLAN · Stages 9 + 10 · data as of 2026-10-14

Trade plan: puts, not stock

In plain English

Don't buy the stock. Macro says no, the crowd hasn't given up, and the price isn't cheap enough versus what PURR owns. Get paid to wait by selling puts at $8 or lower. If assigned, you would own PURR at about 0.71x its assets. Then sell calls at 1.04–1.42x and treat the shares as a trading position, never a long-term hold.

Momentum (RSI 14, daily)

35.2

Weekly 51.4 · below 30 would be "oversold"

Weak, not yet washed out

Trend (simple moving averages)

Below 20 & 50-day

20-day $12.257 · 50-day $10.854 · 100-day $9.445 · 200-day $7.287 (rising)

Sitting on the 100-day; primary trend still up

Average daily swing (ATR 14)

$0.90

9.5% of price a day · 20-day realized volatility 89.8%

Size every put to survive a gap to $4

PURR weekly: candles · daily Bollinger(20,2) and 20/50/200-day averages · put zones and trim bands

46 weekly candles, 2025-12-05 to 2026-10-14 (the last bar is a partial week). Indicators are computed on daily data and sampled weekly. Hover or touch-drag for open/high/low/close.

20-day average50-day average200-day averageBollinger bandentry zones (filled only by put assignment)trim bandsno-chase $10.85breaker ~$7.3 weekly close

Sizing rule framework Stage 10, applied to this tier

10%framework Tier-1 cap (moat 9+)

5%conviction-spec, PM house cap

2.5%PURR cap, assigned notional

1.25%starter while macro is RED

Moat 4/10, below 9, means conviction-spec. The PM house rule caps that at ≤5% of the portfolio, half the 10% Tier-1 cap. The framework sets only the Tier-1 number.
The framework says "size DOWN outside circle of competence." A token wrapper with sponsor economics qualifies, so the PURR cap is 2.5% of the portfolio in assigned notional.
Macro RED → starter size 1.25% (half the cap) until macro flips to YELLOW (2 of 3 conditions in §1b).
10–15 positions max. Portfolio cash at the framework's 25–30% "dicey" level while macro is RED. No leverage.
Barbell check:
- If right: assignment at ~$7.38, then calls at $11–14 = +49% to +90% on the position.
- If wrong: −55% (scenario 1) on 1.25% = −0.7% of the portfolio; −70% tail on 2.5% = −1.75%. Survivable.
10 downside scenarios have been run per 1 upside (§13), as the framework requires.

a 1.25% starter position that falls 55% loses 1.25% × 0.55 ≈ 0.7% of the whole portfolio. A full 2.5% position hit by the −70% exploit case loses 1.75%. Painful, not fatal.

PM overlay overrides the technicals ladder where they conflict

No stock purchases at any zone while macro is RED (veto) and the sentiment gate is NEUTRAL. Zones are filled only through put assignment.
Puts only at strikes of $8 or lower (≤0.77x NAV). The cost basis must be ≤0.75x NAV ($7.80), per the macro carve-out and the sentiment lane's ≤0.85x rule.
- Z1 puts ($9) are OFF. A $9 strike is 0.86x NAV and fails both.
- Preferred: Dec-18 $8P (basis $7.375 = 0.71x). Secondary: Dec-18 $7P (thin premium) or Mar-19 $7P (thin open interest).
Event risk: Dec expiries straddle the 11-04 vote, earnings (~11-12/16) and the buyback expiry (~12-05/08). Size for a gap to $4.
Every mNAV label below is recomputed at NAV $10.41 RT-FIX. The technicals tables (verbatim) used $9.86. Corrected values follow each table.
New breakers (§16): any disclosed tranche below 1.015x NAV; a sponsor waiver revocation notice; Nov-4 passes with no written floor = halve size.

Structure technicals, verbatim

PURR closed at $9.47, the low of the day and below its lower Bollinger band. It broke the 0.382 fib and is sitting on the 100-day average.
Range since listing: low $3.01 (2025-12-29), high $14.76 (2026-09-21). Price is 35.8% below the high; the high is 17 sessions old.

Measure	Value	Price vs it
20-day simple moving average (SMA20)	$12.257	−22.7%
50-day simple moving average (SMA50)	$10.854	−12.8%
100-day simple moving average (SMA100)	$9.445	sitting on it
200-day simple moving average (SMA200)	$7.287	+30.0%, rising; only 18 valid days
Bollinger upper (20,2)	$14.843
Bollinger lower (20,2)	$9.672	close is below it

Daily RSI(14) 35.2. Weekly RSI 51.4. MACD(12,26,9) is −0.268 against a signal of 0.176: a bearish cross below zero. ATR(14) $0.90, which is 9.5% of price. Weekly 10/20/40-week averages: $11.21 / $9.44 / $7.47.
Position in the major swing ($3.01 → $14.76): 55% of the way up, about a 0.45 retracement. The 0.382 level at $10.27 failed on 2026-10-13/14.
Trend read: the primary trend is still up (price above a rising 200-day; higher lows Dec→Jul at $3.01, then $5.80). The intermediate trend is down: five lower closes since 2026-10-05 ($12.92 → $9.47).
The last 10 sessions traded at 0.43–0.84x the 50-day average volume. That is an orderly, low-volume decline: not capitulation, and no base yet. Over 30 days, up-day volume ÷ down-day volume = 0.89 (mild distribution). Today closed at the day's low with no reversal candle.
PURR realized vol: 20-day 89.8% (36th percentile of its own history, range 54–151%), 60-day 100.7%, since listing 101.7%. HYPE 20-day realized vol 58.4%, 60-day 78.9%. PURR/HYPE 60-day correlation 0.80, beta 1.15.
Historical forward returns since listing (biased by the uptrend; n is small): 40-day 5th/10th percentile −25.8% / −17.6%. 45-day 5th/10th percentile −23.6% / −11.2%. Worst 20-day drawdown from a high: −32.8%.

Glossary for this block: SMA = simple moving average, the average close over N days. RSI = a 0–100 momentum gauge; below 30 is oversold. MACD = a trend-momentum indicator. ATR = average daily price swing. Bollinger Bands = an envelope two standard deviations around the 20-day average. Fib = Fibonacci retracement checkpoints. Beta = how much PURR moves per 1% move in HYPE.

the long-term trend is still up, but the short-term trend is down and nothing has stopped the fall yet. The price is sitting on a support line (the 100-day average), with heavier support lower at $8.30–8.90 and $7.30–7.50. That is where the put strikes are aimed.

Key levels technicals, verbatim

Fib retracements of $3.01 → $14.76: 0.236 = $11.99 · 0.382 = $10.27 (lost) · 0.5 = $8.89 · 0.618 = $7.50 · 0.786 = $5.52.
200-week MA: n/a (only 46 weekly bars). Closest proxies: 40-week SMA $7.47 and 200-day SMA $7.29. Both sit at the 0.618 fib, so $7.3–7.5 is where the "big dogs" converge.
Volume profile, full history (40 bins): biggest node $8.30–8.59 (9.4% of all volume). Others: $11.24–11.53 (5.8%), $11.82–12.41 (9.6% combined), $9.47–9.77 (4.7%), $6.83–7.12 (4.2%), $7.71–8.00 (4.1%), $10.65–10.94 (4.0%).
Volume profile, last 120 days: $8.43–8.73 (9.2%), $13.86–14.16 (8.0%), $11.74–12.35 (13.8%), $8.12–8.43 (6.1%), $6.62–6.92 (5.8%).
Support stack: $9.44–9.47 (100-day + node) → $8.30–8.90 (0.5 fib + biggest node) → $7.29–7.50 (200-day, 40-week, 0.618) → $5.52–6.90 (0.786 + Q1-base nodes).
Resistance stack: $10.27 (0.382) → $10.65–10.94 (node + 50-day $10.85) → $11.8–12.4 (0.236, 20-day, node cluster) → $13.9–14.76 (node + high).

Entry ladder technicals agent, verbatim; the PM overlay above governs execution

Entry Ladder

$8.75–8.90Z1 PM: PUTS OFF
0.5 fib $8.89, biggest volume node $8.30–8.59 just below. Technicals mNAV 0.89–0.90x; PM-corrected 0.84–0.85x.30%

$7.40–7.90Z2 LIVE VIA DEC-18 $8 PUT
0.618 fib $7.50, 200-day $7.29 (rising about $0.02/day), 40-week $7.47, node $7.71–8.00. Technicals mNAV 0.75–0.80x (historical low end 0.77x); PM-corrected 0.71–0.76x.40%

$5.50–6.90Z3 THESIS-INTACT ONLY
0.786 fib $5.52, Q1-base nodes $6.62–7.12. Technicals mNAV 0.56–0.70x (Q1 2026 trough printed about 0.65x, buybacks at $3.42); PM-corrected 0.53–0.66x.30%

Zone	Allocation	Price	Why	mNAV
Z1	30%	$8.75-8.90	0.5 fib $8.89, biggest volume node $8.30-8.59 just below	0.89-0.90x
Z2	40%	$7.40-7.90	0.618 fib $7.50, 200-day $7.29 (rising about $0.02/day), 40-week $7.47, node $7.71-8.00	0.75-0.80x (historical low end 0.77x)
Z3	30%	$5.50-6.90	0.786 fib $5.52, Q1-base nodes $6.62-7.12	0.56-0.70x (Q1 2026 trough printed about 0.65x, buybacks at $3.42)

Only fill Z3 if the thesis is intact: HYPE above $50, no ELOC issuance below NAV, buyback active.
No-chase line: $10.85 (1.1x mNAV, the 50-day SMA, top of the $10.65-10.94 node). Management issues stock above about 1.1x, so supply caps it there.
No tranche fills before a daily close back above $10.27 (0.382), unless price trades down into a zone.

PM correction (mNAV at NAV $10.41) RT-FIX:

Z1 $8.75–8.90 = 0.84–0.85x (puts OFF under the overlay).
Z2 $7.40–7.90 = 0.71–0.76x.
Z3 $5.50–6.90 = 0.53–0.66x.
The no-chase $10.85 = 1.04x. True 1.1x = $11.45.
PM keeps $10.85 as the no-chase line: it is the 50-day and the volume node, and 1.04x is above accretion breakeven, so supply arrives there.

Exit and trim framework technicals agent, verbatim

Band	Price	Basis	mNAV	Trim
T1	$10.85-11.00	50-day, 1.1x, node	1.10-1.12x	25%
T2	$12.0-12.4	0.236 fib $11.99, 20-day $12.26, node cluster, $12.50 warrant strike	1.22-1.26x	35%
T3	$13.3-14.8	1.35x (the 2026-08-27 mNAV level), ATH $14.76 = 1.5x	1.35-1.50x	remaining 40%

Valuation rule: trim anything above 1.25x mNAV. Be fully out at 1.4x or higher. The history range is about 0.77-1.35x (Capital Flows / The Block).
Time rule: assigned shares are a wheel instrument, not a hold. If they are not called away within 2 monthly cycles (about 60-90 days) and mNAV has not reverted to 1.0x or higher, reassess.
Hard checkpoints: FQ1 earnings on 2026-11-16 (Yahoo Finance calendar), inside the Nov 20 and Dec 18 expiries. The anniversary of the Dec 2025 deal close (about 2026-12-02 lockup) falls inside the Dec 18 expiry.
Thesis breakers (stop selling puts):
1. Weekly close below the 200-day / 40-week (~$7.3) with mNAV below 0.75x and no buyback response.
2. HYPE weekly close below $60 (NAV/share $7.73).
3. Any ELOC issuance at or below NAV, or a share-count jump without matching HYPE.
4. A staking or custody incident (substantially all HYPE is staked).
5. PURR implied vol below 70%, so premium no longer pays for the tail.

PM correction (mNAV at NAV $10.41) RT-FIX:

T1 = 1.04–1.06x; T2 = 1.15–1.19x; T3 = 1.28–1.42x.
The valuation rule's 1.25x = $13.01; 1.4x = $14.57.
Breaker 2 at HYPE $60: NAV is $8.23, not $7.73.
Breaker 3: "at or below NAV" is tightened to below 1.015x NAV (the accretion breakeven).
The Dec-2 checkpoint may be moot if the lockup lapsed (§13).

Wheel note technicals agent, verbatim; chains pulled 2026-10-14 ~18:50 MT, after the close; re-quote live, post-close spreads lie

In plain English

The wheel means: sell a put (get paid now, agree to buy at the strike), and if the shares get put to you, sell calls against them (get paid again, agree to sell higher). The preferred trade is the December 18 $8 put: you collect about $0.625 a share now, and if PURR is below $8 on that date you buy it at an effective $7.375, about 0.71x what it owns.

Liquidity:

Weeklies are thin: total open interest on Oct 23 is 2,631 puts and 2,947 calls, with $0.05-0.25 spreads.
Monthlies are deep. Dec 18 open interest: 48,802 puts and 177,757 calls. Nov 20: 8,887 puts and 80,980 calls.
Unusual concentration: Nov 20 11C has 30,819 open interest, and Dec 18 20C has 29,851.
Monthly spreads run $0.10-0.25, which is 10-20% of the premium. Use limits at mid.

Implied vol:

At the money: about 80-82% on puts, 87-91% on calls.
Out-of-the-money calls price higher (93-100% at $14-20), an upside call skew typical of a crypto proxy.
Implied vol roughly equals PURR 20-day realized (89.8%) and is 1.4-1.5x HYPE 20-day realized (58.4%).
IV rank: not derivable (no implied-vol history in the free data). Proxies: 20-day realized vol is at its 36th percentile, and implied vol is down from about 107% (30-day mean, July dossier). So IV rank is likely low-to-mid.

Cash-secured puts

Yield = premium ÷ strike. Basis = strike − premium. Basis mNAV = basis ÷ $9.86 (the technicals NAV; corrected values below).

Zone	Expiry	Strike	Days to expiry	Bid / ask	Mid	Yield	Annualized	Cost basis	Basis mNAV	Out of the money	Open interest
Z1	Nov 20	9P	37	0.70/0.90	0.80	8.9%	88%	$8.20	0.83x	5.0%	989
Z1 (preferred)	Dec 18	9P	65	1.00/1.15	1.075	11.9%	67%	$7.925	0.80x	5.0%	6,027
Z2	Dec 18	8P	65	0.55/0.70	0.625	7.8%	44%	$7.375	0.75x	15.5%	7,329
Z2	Jan 15	8P	93	0.70/0.90	0.80	10.0%	39%	$7.20	0.73x	15.5%	207
Z3	Dec 18	7P	65	0.25/0.35	0.30	4.3%	24%	$6.70	0.68x	26.1%	9,068
Z3	Mar 19	7P	156	0.65/0.90	0.775	11.1%	26%	$6.225	0.63x	26.1%	200

Avoid Jan 15 6P: bid/ask 0.15/0.25, 13% annualized, basis $5.80 (0.59x). The premium doesn't pay.
Earnings (11/16) and the Dec 2 lockup both sit inside the Dec expiry. Size for a gap.

the Dec-18 $8 put pays a $0.625 mid. Yield = $0.625 ÷ $8 = 7.8% for 65 days, about 44% a year. If assigned, cost basis = $8 − $0.625 = $7.375, and $7.375 ÷ $10.41 NAV = 0.71x.

Covered calls

Yield on $9.47. mNAV at the strike uses the technicals NAV ($9.86); corrected values below.

Band	Expiry	Strike	Days to expiry	Bid / ask	Mid	Yield	Annualized	Strike mNAV	Open interest
T1	Nov 20	11C	37	0.50/0.60	0.55	5.8%	57%	1.12x	30,819
T1	Dec 18	11C	65	0.85/1.00	0.925	9.8%	55%	1.12x	12,526
T2	Dec 18	12C	65	0.60/0.75	0.675	7.1%	40%	1.22x	9,390
T2	Dec 18	13C	65	0.50/0.60	0.55	5.8%	33%	1.32x	13,827
T2	Jan 15	12C	93	0.90/1.15	1.025	10.8%	43%	1.22x	646
T3	Dec 18	14C	65	0.35/0.45	0.40	4.2%	24%	1.42x	8,305
T3	Jan 15	15C	93	0.45/0.50	0.475	5.0%	20%	1.52x	8,456
T3	Mar 19	15C	156	0.90/1.05	0.975	10.3%	24%	1.52x	1,732

Warrant overhang:

About 9.13M advisor warrants at $9.375 are at the money now. Exercising them is mildly dilutive while the strike is below the $9.86 NAV/share.
About 9.13M at $12.50 sit inside T2 and add supply there.
About 9.13M at $18.75 are far out of the money.

PM correction (mNAV at NAV $10.41) RT-FIX:

Put basis mNAV: Nov $9P 0.79x · Dec $9P 0.76x · Dec $8P 0.71x · Jan $8P 0.69x · Dec $7P 0.64x · Mar $7P 0.60x.
Call strike mNAV: $11 1.06x · $12 1.15x · $13 1.25x · $14 1.34x · $15 1.44x.
The $9.375 warrant strike is below NAV $10.41, so exercise is mildly accretive to NAV per share, not dilutive. It adds supply.

PM selection

Dec-18 $8P at $0.625 mid: 7.8% yield on strike, 44% annualized, assigned at 0.71x.
On assignment: Dec-18 or Jan-15 $11–12 calls (1.06–1.15x).
Keep 25–35% uncapped for T3 (the framework's "uncovered runners" rule).
Skip the IV breaker for now: 86.6% is above the 70% floor. But the prior dossier's "IV > 90%" condition is missed, so premium is thinner than in July.

§16 · RISKS, VALIDATORS / BREAKERS, FIRST-PRINCIPLES KPIs · data as of 2026-10-14

Risks, validators, breakers and the numbers we track

In plain English

Below are the risks ranked by what would actually kill the case for PURR, the dated checkpoints that prove it right or wrong, and six numbers we will track that Wall Street mostly doesn't.

Risks ranked by what kills the thesis

Issuance below NAV after Nov 4. Kills per-share compounding outright, and the "dilution machine" story then sets a 0.78x multiple (scenario 2).
HYPE drawdown with a liquidity squeeze. Fed hiking, CCC spreads widening, HYPE→BTC beta 1.19 (90-day). Two drops compound: HYPE price × multiple (scenarios 1, 9). A −55% path.
Permanent wrapper discount from ETF substitution. The most likely bad case (25%). It makes the equity line useless and caps the bull case.
Sponsor economics. Revocable 5% + 15% kicker; 27.39M warrants; the board is sponsor-controlled; insiders own ~2.41M shares.
Hyperliquid fee decay or exploit. The April-2026 revenue trough (−56%); incentive-paying rivals; JELLY-type manipulation (scenarios 4, 8).
Custody, slashing and validator concentration. One custodian; 75.7% on one operator; liability cap undisclosed.
Regulatory. No US home for perps; CLARITY stalled; investment-company risk if HYPE is a security; the US-access win cuts both ways.
Tax. A ~$279M bill on liquidation; CAMT cash tax at high HYPE prices; Subpart F.
Supply overhang. 238M HYPE of contributor unlocks; up to 160M PURR shares registered for Chardan resale.
Buyback expiry. Without renewal there is no below-NAV defense.

Validators (check-by dates)

Validator	Check by	Passes if
Fed meeting	2026-10-28	Hold, and CCC spreads stabilize for 2–3 weeks (macro flip #1)
Annual meeting	2026-11-04	Proposal 2 fails, OR a written, enforceable floor of 1.0x tax-adjusted NAV is published
Q1 FY27 10-Q	~2026-11-12/16 UNVERIFIED	September tranches averaged ≥1.1x NAV; after-tax HYPE-equivalent per 1,000 shares ≥127.5 at 09-30 marks; share count reconciles (300.04M vs 304.86M); costs ≤$4.5M
Q3 13Fs	2026-11-14	Quality funds kept or added through the September spike
Buyback renewal	~2026-12-05/08	New authorization of $100M or more
HYPE / Hyperliquid	Monthly (next 2026-11-01)	Monthly protocol revenue ≥$70M; HYPE above $90 (macro flip #2)
Sponsor waiver	Rolling	Made irrevocable
Q2 FY27 10-Q	~2027-02	Two straight quarters of rising after-tax HYPE-equivalent per share

Breakers (any one = stop selling puts / exit assigned shares; mirrors §15)

Breaker	Check by
Any disclosed equity-line tranche below 1.015x NAV, or a share-count jump without matching HYPE	Each 424B3 / 10-Q (next ~11-12/16)
Sponsor delivers a waiver revocation notice	Continuous (8-K)
Nov-4 passes with no written floor → halve size (not a full breaker by itself)	2026-11-04
HYPE weekly close below $60 (NAV $8.23)	Weekly
PURR weekly close below ~$7.3 with mNAV below 0.75x and no buyback response	Weekly
A staking, slashing or custody incident	Continuous
PURR implied vol below 70%	Each roll
Hyperliquid monthly protocol revenue below $45M	Monthly
CFTC / Justice Department action against Hyperliquid, or a ruling that HYPE is a security	Continuous
Insiders sell distributed advisor shares in size (>1M shares in a quarter)	Form 4s

First-principles KPIs not Wall Street's

1 · After-tax HYPE-equivalent per 1,000 shares

Now127.5

Target≥130 · +0.5%/qtr

The master metric. Was 134.4 at 03-31. Bar scale 120–140.

Check by Q1 FY27 10-Q, ~2026-11-12/16 · target by the Q2 FY27 10-Q

2 · Raw HYPE per 1,000 shares

Now128.4

Target≥131.0

The August high. HYPE owned ÷ as-converted shares × 1,000. Bar scale 120–140.

Dashboard weekly; 10-Q · target by the Q2 FY27 10-Q

3 · Realized issuance multiple

Now (Sep, est.)~1.13–1.25x

Target≥1.1x · never <1.015x

Average price received ÷ NAV per share at sale date, per tranche. ~1.15x through 06-30 (CEO). Bar scale 0.8–1.4x. EST

Check by Q1 FY27 10-Q, ~2026-11-12/16

4 · Buyback firepower

Now$2.2M = 0.08%

Target≥$100M (≥3.5%)

Remaining authorization ÷ market value. Bar scale 0–5%.

Check by 8-K, ~2026-12-08

5 · Hyperliquid 30-day protocol revenue

Now$69.0M

Target≥$70M · bull ≥$90M

DefiLlama daily revenue, summed. September was $74.2M. Bar scale $0–100M; ticks at $70M (macro flip) and $90M (bull).

Check by 2026-11-01

6 · Wrapper share of listed HYPE demand

Nown/a

TargetStable or rising

PURR HYPE ÷ (PURR HYPE + HYPE owned by ETFs). ETF October data missing.

Check by ETF issuer data, 2026-11

Each bar shows where the current value sits against the target (white tick). Red = far from target, amber = close, green = on target.

#	KPI	How to compute	Current	Target	Next check
1	After-tax HYPE-equivalent per 1,000 shares (the master metric)	(HYPE + cash ÷ HYPE price − tax bill ÷ HYPE price) ÷ shares × 1,000	127.5 (was 134.4 at 03-31)	Rising ≥0.5% a quarter (faster than staking alone); ≥130 by the Q2 FY27 10-Q	Q1 FY27 10-Q, ~11-12/16
2	Raw HYPE per 1,000 shares	HYPE owned ÷ as-converted shares × 1,000	128.4	≥131.0 (the August high) by the Q2 FY27 10-Q	Dashboard weekly; 10-Q
3	Realized issuance multiple	Average price received ÷ NAV per share at sale date, per tranche	~1.13–1.25x EST for Sep; ~1.15x through 06-30 (CEO)	≥1.1x every tranche; never below 1.015x	Q1 FY27 10-Q
4	Buyback firepower	Remaining authorization ÷ market value	$2.2M = 0.08%	≥$100M (≥3.5%) authorized before ~12-08	8-K by ~12-08
5	Hyperliquid 30-day protocol revenue	DefiLlama daily revenue, summed	$69.0M (Sep $74.2M)	≥$70M (macro flip); ≥$90M (bull trigger)	2026-11-01
6	Wrapper share of listed HYPE demand	PURR HYPE ÷ (PURR HYPE + HYPE ETF assets in tokens)	n/a (ETF October data missing)	Stable or rising	ETF issuer data, 2026-11

if KPIs 1 and 3 move up together, PURR is finally doing what it promises: turning a premium into more HYPE per share. Until then it is a HYPE tracker with costs, and the only sensible trade is to be paid to buy it below what it owns.

CHANGELOG · METHOD · §17 SOURCES · data as of 2026-10-14

Changelog: a living document

v1.0 — 2026-10-14 (Liquid Wheel Research · deep-dive team)

First full deep dive on Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR). Seven research lanes merged (Quant, Qualitative/management/moat, Macro, Sentiment, Technicals and wheel, Tracker grading the July dossier, and an independent Red Team that audited all of them); 25 audit corrections applied. 16-gate checklist (4 PASS / 5 WATCH / 7 FAIL), capital-structure six-pack, quarterly and leading-indicator tables, cash bridge, net-asset-value build, mNAV history, issuance accretion test, bull/base/bear with probability weights, price grid, ten downside scenarios plus one upside, known-unknowns ledger, entry ladder, trim bands, wheel note with PM corrections, breakers and six first-principles KPIs. Score 3.5/10, thesis ON WATCH, macro RED, sentiment NEUTRAL: no stock; cash-secured puts at $8 or lower only.

Baseline before v1.0: the 2026-07-12 triage (2/12, rubric "not applicable") and the 2026-07-12 PURR Wheel-Instrument Dossier. No earlier PURR deep dive exists.

Next scheduled checks: Fed meeting 2026-10-27/28; annual meeting and Proposal 2 vote 2026-11-04; Q1 FY27 results about 2026-11-12 to 11-16 (date not confirmed: StockAnalysis says 11-12, Yahoo 11-16); 13F filings 2026-11-14; buyback authorization expiry about 2026-12-05 to 12-08.

How this was built

Liquid Wheel Research, Deep-Dive Framework, Stages 0 to 12. Data as of the 2026-10-14 close. The 16 gates are the same checklist used for the IREN v3 and ORCL v1.0 deep dives, so grades compare across names.

PURR's fiscal year ends June 30. FY26 runs 2025-07-01 to 2026-06-30. Q1 FY27 (July to September 2026) has not been reported yet. All dollar figures are in millions unless marked "per share" or "B" (billions).

Seven research lanes were merged:

Quant (framework Stages 2, 4, 8)
Qualitative, management and moat (Stages 3, 5, 6)
Macro (Stage 1)
Sentiment (Stage 7)
Technicals and wheel (Stages 9, 10)
Tracker (Stage 12, grading the prior report)
An independent Red Team that audited all of the above.

The model inputs used everywhere unless noted

38.52MHYPE owned (dashboard, data effective 2026-10-08)

$263.53Mcash (same source)

$81.56HYPE price

300.55Mfully diluted shares

$1,815.09Mtax basis = $47.12 per HYPE

21.05%tax rate

38.52M HYPE owned and $263.53M cash, from the company dashboard (data effective 2026-10-08, one-week lag).
HYPE at $81.56. Other sources on the same day: CoinGecko $80.65–80.70, purrmnav $81.02, Yahoo $80.66. That is a ±1% spread.
300.55M fully diluted shares.
Tax basis $1,815.09M, which is $47.12 per HYPE.
Tax rate 21.05%.

Tags used throughout

Tag	Meaning
CONFLICT	Two lanes disagree. The better-sourced number is used and the other is shown.
UNVERIFIED	Single secondary source, or no source.
RT-FIX	A Red Team correction that has been applied.
EST	An estimate or model output, not a reported figure.
PM	A portfolio-manager judgment, or an addition not found in the lanes.

Sources §17 · consolidated, deduped; documents the team actually used

In plain English

Every number above traces back to one of these documents. SEC filings and the company's own dashboard are the primary sources. News, aggregator and social-media items are secondary and are tagged in the text where they carry a claim alone.

Company and SEC filings (CIK 2078856)

EDGAR submissions index: https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0002078856.json
10-K FY26 (filed 2026-08-27): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2078856/000119312526370281/purr-20260630.htm
8-K Ex-99.1 FY26 results (2026-08-27): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2078856/000119312526369668/purr-ex99_1.htm
10-Q Q3 FY26: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2078856/000119312526212519/purr-20260331.htm · Ex-99.1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2078856/000119312526212109/purr-ex99_1.htm
10-Q Q2 FY26: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2078856/000119312526045901/purr-20251231.htm · Ex-99.1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2078856/000119312526045553/purr-ex99_1.htm
8-K 2025-12-08 Ex-99.1 (buyback): accession 000119312525310714
8-K 2026-09-01 (Chardan Amendment 1, $2.5B, Exchange Cap): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2078856/000119312526378589/purr-20260901.htm
8-Ks 2026-09-14 / 09-15 (Amendments 2/3): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2078856/000119312526389910/purr-20260914.htm · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2078856/000119312526391090/purr-20260914.htm
8-K 2026-06-26 (CEO/COO pay): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2078856/000119312526285672/purr-20260622.htm
424B3 2026-09-23 (09-08 shares, HYPE, staking split, line proceeds, Hyperliquid stats): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2078856/000119312526399511/d168095d424b3.htm
S-1 (Sep 2026): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002078856/000119312526391097/d168095ds1.htm
Prospectus Supplement 3 to Chardan (08-23 shares/HYPE): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2078856/000119312526370737/pro._supp._3_to_chardan_.htm
424B3 2026-08-27 Advisor prospectus supplement 1: accession 000119312526370731
DEF 14A 2026-10-02 (09-30 shares, ownership, Advisory Agreement, waiver terms, Nasdaq Proposal): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2078856/000119312526412569/d290166ddef14a.htm
Form 3/4 filings 2025-12-04 → 2026-09-30 (47 filings), incl. accessions 0001193125-26-296312/-296316, -380309/-380311/-380314, -395775/-395776/-395777, -409271/-409272/-409273
Company dashboard and IR: https://www.hypestrat.xyz/ · https://www.hypestrat.xyz/data/dashboard-seed.js · https://www.hypestrat.xyz/data/last-prices.js · https://www.hypestrat.xyz/data/press-auto.js

Call transcripts and summaries

FY26 call (Investing.com): https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-hyperliquid-strategies-posts-strong-q4-2026-results-stock-rises-premarket-93CH-4879485
Q3 FY26 call (Investing.com): https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/earnings-call-transcript-hyperliquid-strategies-q3-2026-reveals-tokendriven-gains-93CH-4661386
Q2 FY26 summary (Yahoo): https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hyperliquid-strategies-q2-earnings-call-000331985.html
Q4 highlights (Yahoo/MarketBeat): https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/hyperliquid-strategies-q4-earnings-call-140447676.html
Talking Tokens: https://talkingtokens.beehiiv.com/p/why-this-private-equity-veteran-is-going-all-in-on-hyperliquid · https://iq.wiki/wiki/david-schamis

Market data

Yahoo Finance market data: PURR, HYPE, Bitcoin, Ether, MSTR, BMNR, SBET, HYPD, the 10-year Treasury yield, VIX, the US dollar index, IWM and the 13-week T-bill; PURR option chains for 10-23, 10-30, 11-20, 12-18, 2027-01-15 and 2027-03-19
TradingView daily price data: NASDAQ:PURR and BINANCE:HYPEUSDT
CoinGecko (Hyperliquid and Bitcoin prices, 365-day history); CoinGecko treasury tracker: https://www.coingecko.com/en/treasuries/companies/hyperliquid-strategies-inc
DefiLlama: https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/hyperliquid?dataType=dailyRevenue · https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/hyperliquid?dataType=dailyFees · https://api.llama.fi/overview/open-interest · https://defillama.com/pro/hyperliquid-competitive-intelligence-60s8le
FRED M2 money supply: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=M2SL
AlphaQuery 30-day implied volatility: https://www.alphaquery.com/stock/PURR/volatility-option-statistics/30-day/iv-mean
purrmnav.com (10-14): https://purrmnav.com/
MarketBeat forecast: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PURR/forecast/
MarketBeat short interest: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PURR/short-interest/
MarketBeat institutional ownership: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PURR/institutional-ownership/
MarketBeat, 2026-10-05: https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-hyperliquid-strategies-nasdaq-purr-stock-jumps-81-should-you-buy-2026-10-05/
StockAnalysis: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/purr/
StockTwits: https://stocktwits.com/symbol/PURR

News and research

Disclosure & disclaimer: This report is education and personal research, not financial advice. The author may hold positions in PURR or HYPE, including options (the wheel), and may trade them at any time without notice. No personal positions or account figures are shown here. Numbers come from company filings through the DEF 14A dated 2026-10-02, the company's public dashboard (data effective 2026-10-08) and market data as of the 2026-10-14 close. Estimates are labeled. Crypto assets and the companies that own them can fall very far, very fast. Do your own work, and size anything you do so that being wrong is survivable.

§18 · GLOSSARY · data as of 2026-10-14

Glossary

In plain English

Every term, abbreviation and ratio used in this report, each defined in one sentence. Where it applies, PURR's actual number is given. Anywhere on the page, a word with a dotted underline is in this list: hover over it, or tap it on a phone, to see the definition.

Term	Plain-English definition	PURR's number
0–9
10-K / 10-Q / 8-K	Annual report / quarterly report / current-event report filed with the SEC.	—
10Y / 2Y	10-year and 2-year Treasury yields.	5.19% / 4.79%
13F / 13G	Quarterly report of institutional positions / large-owner disclosure.	—
16-gate checklist	The standard pass/watch/fail tests.	PURR 4 / 5 / 7
200-week MA	The long-term average the framework uses for add-zones.	n/a (46 weeks of history)
A
Accretion breakeven	The mNAV above which selling stock raises NAV per share.	1.015x (1 ÷ 0.985)
Accretive / accretion	A share sale or buyback that raises NAV per share.	—
Advisory Agreement / kicker	The sponsor's right to 5% shares + 15% warrants on every equity raise.	waived, revocable on two weeks' notice
After-tax HYPE-equivalent per 1,000 shares	NAV per share expressed in HYPE.	127.5 (was 134.4 at 03-31)
As-converted	Counting preferred as if converted to common.	~304.86M
Assignment	Being required to buy (put) or sell (call) the shares.	—
Assistance Fund	Hyperliquid's on-chain fund that receives ~99% of fees and buys back HYPE.	it has removed 47.1M HYPE (4.7% of supply)
ATR (average true range)	The average daily price swing.	$0.90 (9.5%)
AUM (assets under management)	Money in a fund.	BHYP had $105M after 11 days
B
Basic shares	Common plus preferred on the dashboard.	300.04M
Basis trade	Shorting PURR while owning HYPE to profit from the gap closing.	—
BCA (business combination agreement)	The merger contract (signed 2025-07-11).	—
Beta	Move per 1% move in a benchmark.	PURR→HYPE 1.15 (60-day)
BHYP / THYP / HYPG	Bitwise, 21Shares and Grayscale spot HYPE ETFs.	—
Bid / ask / mid	Best buy and sell quotes and their midpoint.	Dec $8P 0.55 / 0.70 / 0.625
Black-Scholes	An option-pricing formula.	used to value the sponsor warrants at $134.7M (123% volatility)
Bollinger Bands	An envelope two standard deviations around the 20-day average.	lower $9.672
Book value / P/B (price-to-book)	Accounting equity per share.	$8.25 as-converted at 06-30, so P/B 1.15x
Borrow fee	The cost to borrow shares to short.	n/a
bps (basis points)	Hundredths of a percent.	100 bps = 1%
Breakeven	The inflation rate implied by bond prices.	10-year 2.33%
"BTC yield"	MSTR's metric for Bitcoin per share growth.	PURR's equivalent (HYPE per share) is +2.8% raw since 03-31
Buyback (repurchase)	The company buying its own stock.	$27.8M of the $30M authorization used
C
CAMT (corporate alternative minimum tax)	A 15% minimum tax on book income above a $1B three-year average.	—
Capex (capital expenditures)	Spending on equipment.	$0
CEX / DEX (centralized / decentralized exchange)	A company-run exchange (Binance) vs an on-chain one (Hyperliquid).	—
CFNAI	The Chicago Fed's activity index.	−0.04
CFTC	The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates futures.	—
ChEF	Chardan's name for its committed equity facility (the ELOC).	—
Circulating supply	Tokens currently tradable.	~235.2M per filings (~222M per CoinGecko)
CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633)	A crypto market-structure bill.	Senate cloture failed 49–50 on 2026-09-15
Closed-end fund discount	A fund trading persistently below its assets.	scenario 10 (0.70x)
Common shares	Ordinary shares.	278,271,288 at 09-30
Core-contributor unlocks / vesting	Scheduled release of 238M HYPE (23.8% of supply) to Hyperliquid's team through 2027–28.	"vested" means allowed, not necessarily sold
Correlation	How closely two prices move together (−1 to 1).	PURR/HYPE 0.80
Cost basis	Strike minus premium.	$7.375 = 0.71x NAV
Covered call	Selling a call against shares you own.	—
CPI / PCE / PPI	Consumer price, personal consumption expenditures and producer price inflation measures.	September CPI 3.7%
CSP (cash-secured put)	Selling a put with cash set aside to buy the shares if assigned.	preferred Dec-18 $8P
Current ratio	Short-term assets ÷ short-term bills.	$152.4M ÷ $3.66M = 41.6x
Custody / custodian	The firm that keeps the tokens safe.	Anchorage has substantially all of PURR's HYPE
CVR (contingent value right)	A payout right tied to selling legacy Sonnet assets.	"nominal."
D
DAT (digital-asset treasury)	A listed company whose main business is owning a crypto token.	PURR, MSTR, BMNR, SBET and HYPD are DATs
Days to cover	Short shares ÷ average daily volume.	0.96
De-peg	When a "$1 token" trades away from $1.	—
DEF 14A	The proxy statement for the shareholder meeting (2026-10-02).	—
Delegation	Other owners staking their tokens through someone else's validator.	2.3M HYPE delegated to PURR's
Dilution	More shares splitting the same pie.	as-converted shares +99% since December 2025
DTL (deferred tax liability)	Tax owed if gains were realized.	~$279.2M = 21.05% × ($3,141.6M − $1,815.09M)
DXY	The US dollar index.	102.52
E
EBITDA	Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, a rough cash-profit measure.	not reported
ELOC (equity line of credit)	A deal under which Chardan must buy new shares on request.	$2.5B facility, ~$0.91B left EST
EPS (earnings per share)	Net income ÷ shares.	FY26 diluted $3.21
Equity-method loss	PURR's share of Guidant's losses.	$0.4M
ETF (exchange-traded fund)	A fund that trades like a stock.	—
Euphoria / capitulation	Peak optimism / mass giving-up.	—
EV (enterprise value)	Market value + debt − cash.	~$2.58B
Exchange Cap	Nasdaq's 19.99% limit on discounted share sales without a vote.	42,641,847 shares
F
FCF (free cash flow)	OCF minus capex.	−$19.1M
Fed / FOMC	The Federal Reserve / its rate-setting committee.	next meeting 10-27/28
Fed funds rate	The Fed's policy rate.	3.75–4.00%
Fibonacci retracement (fib)	Pullback checkpoints at 23.6/38.2/50/61.8/78.6% of a move.	0.618 = $7.50
Float	Shares available to trade.	stale aggregator figure 195.4M
Flywheel	A self-reinforcing loop.	stalled at 0.91x
Form 3 / Form 4	Insider initial ownership / insider trade reports.	code J = other acquisition or distribution; code A = grant
Fully diluted	Counting all shares that could exist under the company's formula.	300.55M
G
GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles)	US accounting rules.	FY26 GAAP net income $305.5M
Gas burn	HYPE destroyed as transaction fees.	~1.4% of supply so far
GDPNow	The Atlanta Fed's real-time growth estimate.	+3.6%
Gross margin	Revenue minus direct costs, as a % of revenue.	100%
H
HIP-3	Hyperliquid's system that lets builders launch their own futures markets on its rails (e.g., tradeXYZ).	—
HY / CCC / IG OAS	Extra yield over Treasuries for junk, lowest-grade and investment-grade bonds.	3.16% / 12.67% / 0.83%
HYPE	The token of the Hyperliquid blockchain and exchange.	~$81.56; PURR owns 38.52M
HYPE per 1,000 shares	HYPE held ÷ shares × 1,000.	128.4
Hyperliquid	A decentralized exchange for crypto futures that runs on its own blockchain and spends 97–99% of fees buying back HYPE.	—
I
Implied volatility (IV)	The swing priced into options.	at the money ~80–91%
Institutional ownership	Shares owned by funds.	9.45% vs 45.3% CONFLICT
Investment Company Act (40-Act)	The law for funds.	a risk if HYPE is ruled a security
IPR&D (in-process research and development)	Acquired research value.	written off ($35.6M)
ISM	Purchasing-manager surveys of business activity.	Manufacturing 54.5, Services 54.9
IV rank	Where today's IV sits in its own history.	not derivable
K
KATT	A 2x-leveraged ETF on PURR stock, launched 2026-09-09.	—
Known-unknowns ledger	A ranked list of open questions.	—
L
Liquidity cycle / business cycle	Money conditions / economic activity.	late and tightening / still expanding
Lockup	A period when insiders can't sell.	the advisor lockup may have lapsed at a 150% price trigger
Loss on contribution	The gap between the credit given for contributed HYPE ($46.372) and its market price at close.	$169.2M
LUC	The J-Griff research method that is the spine of the framework.	—
M
M2	The broad money supply.	+5.7% YoY
MACD	A trend-momentum indicator from two moving averages.	−0.268 vs signal 0.176
Macro stamp	The Stage-1 veto color.	🔴 RED
Mark-to-market / unrealized gain	Booking an asset at today's price without selling.	$709.9M in FY26
Market cap (market value)	Price × shares.	$2.846B fully diluted
Max supply	The most HYPE that will ever exist.	1B
Mean-reverting	Tending to return toward an average.	mNAV ~1.0x
Minimum Price	The price below which the cap applies.	$12.02
mNAV	Share price ÷ NAV per share.	$9.47 ÷ $10.41 = 0.91x
mNAV bands	This report's stand-ins for the P/S ladder. 0.65–0.75x "left for dead," 0.9–1.0x "aware," 1.2–1.3x "excited/euphoric."	—
Moat	A durable competitive edge.	wrapper 4/10, protocol 7/10
MSTR / BMNR / SBET / HYPD	Strategy (Bitcoin), BitMine (Ether), SharpLink (Ether) and Hyperion DeFi (HYPE) treasuries.	—
N
Nasdaq Proposal (Proposal 2)	The 2026-11-04 vote to remove the cap.	—
NAV (net asset value) per share	(HYPE value + cash − tax bill) ÷ shares.	$10.41
Negative carry	Owning an asset that yields less than cash.	HYPE ~2% vs T-bills 4.09%
Net debt	Debt minus cash.	negative (net cash $263.5M)
Net liquidity	Fed balance sheet minus TGA minus RRP.	$5.87T
NFP (nonfarm payrolls)	Monthly US jobs added.	+29K
No-chase line	The price above which the plan does not buy.	$10.85
O
OCF (operating cash flow)	Cash produced by operations.	−$19.1M
Open interest (exchange)	The total value of futures positions still open.	Hyperliquid ~62–65% of on-chain perps
Open interest (options)	The number of option contracts outstanding at a strike.	Dec-18 $8 put = 7,329
Operating leverage	Revenue growing faster than costs.	here, staking ÷ cash costs is 0.7x (FY26) → ~3.5–4x run-rate, non-cash
Operating margin / net margin	Operating profit, or net income, as a % of revenue.	meaningless here
Organic vs acquired growth	Growth from operations vs from buying assets.	PURR's HYPE growth is 100% bought with new equity
OTC (over the counter)	A private trade off an exchange.	the 10-06 3.75M HYPE tranche went OTC
OTM / ATM / ITM	Out of / at / in the money relative to the current price.	—
P
P/E (price-to-earnings)	Price ÷ EPS.	trailing 2.95x, forward 25.6x (noise)
P/FCF	Market value ÷ free cash flow.	n/a (negative)
P/S (price-to-sales)	Market value ÷ yearly revenue.	278.6x
PEG	P/E ÷ earnings growth rate.	n/a
Perpetual futures (perps)	Futures contracts with no expiry date, the main product on Hyperliquid.	—
PIPE (private investment in public equity)	The private sale of shares at the merger close.	—
Plan reserve	Shares set aside for future employee grants.	5,148,024
Price-implied HYPE	The HYPE price at which NAV equals the share price.	$72.29
Protocol revenue	Fees the exchange keeps.	Hyperliquid $689.4M over the trailing 12 months, $74.2M in September
PURR	The stock ticker of Hyperliquid Strategies Inc. on Nasdaq.	$9.47 on 2026-10-14
Put / call	The right to sell / buy at a strike by expiry.	—
R
Real yield	A yield after inflation.	10-year 2.88%
Realized volatility	How much the price actually swung, annualized.	PURR 20-day 89.8%
Record date	The date that sets who can vote.	2026-09-30
Red Team	An independent analyst arguing the bear case and auditing the other lanes.	—
Related party	A person with ties to insiders.	e.g., the Chair's son on payroll
Revenue	Staking and validator income.	$9.46M in FY26
RSI (relative strength index)	A 0–100 momentum gauge.	daily 35.2
RSU (restricted stock unit)	A share grant that vests over time.	CEO 248,344 granted 09-28
Rule of 40	Revenue growth % + FCF margin % should be ≥40 for a healthy growth company.	n/a
Runway	Years of costs covered by cash.	$263.5M ÷ $18M ≈ 14.6
Russell 2000 / 3000	US small-cap / broad stock indexes.	PURR added 2026-06-29
RWA (real-world asset)	Stocks, commodities and similar assets traded as tokens or perps.	—
S
S-1 / 424B3	A registration statement / a prospectus supplement for selling or reselling shares.	—
SBC (stock-based compensation)	Pay in shares.	$0.89M
SEC	The US Securities and Exchange Commission.	—
Sell-side / price target (PT)	Brokerage analysts / their 12-month price forecast.	average $19.80
Series A preferred	166,173 shares, each convertible into 160 common (26,587,647 total).	no dividend; ownership blockers of 4.99% / 9.99%
SG&A / R&D	Selling, general and administrative costs, and research and development.	$13.95M in FY26
Short interest	Shares sold short.	24.15M (~8.7% of common)
Short squeeze	Forced buying by shorts that spikes the price.	no fuel here
Simple mNAV	Market value ÷ (tokens × price + cash), ignoring tax.	PURR 0.84x
Skew	IV differences across strikes.	calls priced higher (93–100% at $14–20)
Skin in the game	Insider stock value ÷ yearly pay.	CEO ~2.0x
Slashing	A penalty that destroys part of a validator's staked tokens for misbehavior.	none so far
SMA (simple moving average)	The average close over N days.	SMA50 $10.854
SOFR − IORB	The overnight funding rate minus interest paid on bank reserves, a funding-stress gauge.	−1.0 bp
Sponsor / Advisor	Atlas Merchant Capital and Rorschach Advisors, which built PURR and earn equity on it.	—
Staggered board	Directors elected in waves, which slows takeovers.	—
Staking	Locking tokens to help run a blockchain in exchange for rewards.	PURR earns ~2% a year in HYPE
Strike / expiry / DTE	The contract price / end date / days to expiry.	$8 / Dec-18 / 65
Subpart F	A US rule taxing certain foreign-subsidiary income.	$63.7M on the Cayman unit
T
T-bill	A short-term Treasury bill.	13-week at 4.09%
Take rate	Fee kept per dollar traded.	Hyperliquid ~2.4 bps
TAM (total addressable market)	The most revenue the whole market could produce.	global perps ~$30T a year of volume
Tax basis	What the HYPE cost for tax purposes.	$1,815.09M = $47.12 per HYPE
Tier-1 vs conviction-spec	A moat of 9+ allows up to 10% sizing.	below that, the PM house cap is 5% (2.5% for PURR)
Treasury Committee	The CEO, CFO and COO, who make token and capital decisions.	—
Treasury shares	Shares the company bought back and keeps.	~5.8M
Treasury stock method	A way to count dilution from warrants that assumes exercise money buys back stock.	+0.51M shares at $9.47
TTM (trailing twelve months)	The last four quarters combined.	—
U
Upside capture	The share of HYPE's gain that reaches PURR's NAV after tax.	~79% ($0.101 per $1 of HYPE vs $0.128)
USDC	A token designed to stay worth $1.	PURR had $12.0M at 06-30
V
Validator	A computer that confirms transactions on a blockchain.	PURR's (run by Unit / Nexus Research Labs) has 75.7% of its HYPE
Validator (thesis) / breaker	A checkpoint that confirms the thesis / one that ends it.	—
VIX / MOVE	Stock and bond volatility indexes.	16.87 / 99.1
Volume profile / node	Where the most shares traded by price.	biggest node $8.30–8.59
VWAP (volume-weighted average price)	The day's average trade price weighted by volume.	Chardan pays 97.5–98.5% of it
W
Waiver	A voluntary, revocable giving-up of a right.	—
WALCL / TGA / RRP	Fed total assets / Treasury's cash account / reverse-repo facility.	$6.75T / $880B / $0.2B
Warrant	A right to buy a share at a fixed price.	27.39M sponsor warrants at $9.375 / $12.50 / $18.75
Weighted diluted shares	The average share count over a period, including dilution.	79.80M for FY26
Wheel	Sell puts, take assignment, sell calls, repeat.	—
Working capital	Short-term assets minus short-term bills.	−$7.4M of cash-flow drag in FY26
Wrapper	A vehicle (a stock or ETF) that gives you exposure to an asset without owning it directly.	—
Y
Yield / annualized	Premium ÷ strike, and that scaled to a year.	7.8% / 44%
YoY (year over year)	A change versus the same period a year earlier.	—
Z
Z1 / Z2 / Z3 and T1 / T2 / T3	The entry zones and trim bands in §15.	—

187 terms, alphabetical (numbers first).

Price vs what it owns

What's inside one PURR share

Price vs what it owns (mNAV)

Net asset value per share

After-tax HYPE-equivalent per 1,000 shares

Balance sheet

Probability-weighted value PM

Moat (competitive edge)

The verdict, line by line

The Bet

Macro gate detail §1b · Stage 1

Flip 🔴 → 🟡 · need 2 of 3 · currently 0 of 3

What would make it 🟢

What changed since the prior version

The diff: July number vs October number what moved most

The dated list most important first

Prior claims: KEPT or MISSED tracker grades

Two-question check Stage 12

Company 101: what PURR actually is

What it is

Where PURR's HYPE is staked (09-08)

The 8-year-old explanation

Dated milestone timeline

TAM and growth runway

Protocol revenue path EST ($B a year)

The flywheel, node by node

Reverse gear

The two gears vs today (mNAV)

Is it spinning? Intermittently. Stalled today.

Friction

Make-or-break questions, most important first

The 16-gate checklist, every gate graded

The checklist as a table same grades, one line each

Where the fails cluster

Financials: the honest pictures

7a. Capital-structure six-pack Shkreli's 15 minutes

7b. Quarterly table $ millions unless marked

7c. From GAAP net income to operating cash flow to free cash flow FY26, 10-K cash-flow statement

7d. Operating-leverage argument, and why it fails

7e. Organic vs acquired growth; anniversary

7f. Leading indicators dated snapshots = the 8-period table

7g. Balance-sheet gates

7h. Debt and convertible schedule

7i. Dilution history and overhang

7j. Chart spec "one chart that tells the story"

Management: dealmakers, not founders

Leadership framework triage: CTO first, then CPO, then CEO

Red flag: there is no chief technology officer (CTO) and no chief product officer (CPO)

Skin in the game formula shown

Skin in the game, log scale (5x weak · 50x strong · 1,000x ideal)

Net 12-month insider activity Form 4, 2025-12-04 to 2026-09-30

Scores (0–10)

Board read 8 seats, DEF 14A 2026-10-02

Moat and competition

PURR (the wrapper)

Hyperliquid (the protocol)

PURR (the wrapper): 4/10, gate FAIL

Hyperliquid (the underlying protocol): 7/10, gate FAIL

Competitor comparison: wrappers who owns the HYPE trade

Competitor comparison: digital-asset treasury peers quant, 10-14

Price vs assets, like-for-like simple basis

Competitor comparison: Hyperliquid vs other perps venues

Earnings tracker: promises vs delivered

Prints vs estimates

Promises vs delivered (dated)

Valuation and scenarios

Scenario range: where $9.47 sits (12–24-month values)

Current multiples with worked examples

Net asset value build dashboard inputs, ~10-01 data, 10-14 prices

What one share owns

mNAV history since listing EST quant weekly interpolation

Issuance discipline the accretion test

Bull / base / bear 12–24 months, dilution-adjusted

Deep bear · Q1-2026 replay

Bear

Base

Bull

Price grid PURR price by HYPE level and mNAV; quant

Peer multiples

Sentiment and positioning